πŸ“ˆFinance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market

Will the S&P 500 be between 7500 and 7524.9999 on May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

PRISM
10.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
18.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-18pp

PRISM detected 7.5pp overconfidence β€” and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 18%. Model estimate: 10%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+22% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 25, 2026 at 10:07 PM
MODERATE Β· OVERPRICED+7.5ppPRISM 10% Β· Market 18%
Live view diverged Β· PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +7.5pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
10.5%
VS
MARKET
18.0%
EDGE DETECTED7.5pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+21
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 29, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

β—ˆ

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. May 25, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 10% vs market 18% β€” MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 29, 11:30 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +22% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE Β· AT FORECAST TIME
18.0%

The market was pricing this event at 18.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high β€” the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
10.5%
EDGE DETECTED
7.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (ΒΌ Kelly Β· cap 5%)
0.3%
PRISM REASONING
  • β–ΈProbability estimate: 16%
  • β–ΈThe S&P 500 at 7,473.47 must land in a very narrow 7,500–7,524.9999 band in a week, making 18% slightly rich
FACTORS FOR
  • +Only ~0.35–0.69% move needed from 7,473.47 level
  • +Recent uptrend and 7,517.12 year-high near target band
FACTORS AGAINST
  • βˆ’Extremely narrow 25-point window on a volatile broad index
  • βˆ’One specific day close; many nearby levels resolve NO
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Index trends higher and closes 7,500–7,525 without overshooting11%
Index trades above band intraday then mean-reverts into 7,500–7,5255%
Evidence 65%
SOURCES (4)
last week
  • Tech Reports, Inflation Data, Higher Yields in Focus - Investing.cominvesting.com

    The U.S. weekly market probability map for May 25 - 29, 2026, suggests β€œShorter trading weeks tend to be bullish!”. These probability maps are derived from ...

    May 25Open β†’
  • S&P Global Announces Pricing of $2,000,000,000 Private Offering of ...press.spglobal.com

    The offering is expected to close on May 29, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The Issuer has also entered into a $500 million senior unsecured ...

    May 19Open β†’
  • Economic Calendartradingeconomics.com

    This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Economic Calendar.

    May 25Open β†’
  • FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org

    ## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA β€” S&P 500 INDEX (FRED β€” USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: S&P 500 Index Latest Value: 7,473.47 (as of 2026-05-22) β€” VERIFIED Change from previous: +27.75 (+0.37%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-18: 7,403.05 2026-05-19: 7,353.61 2026-05-20: 7,432.97 2026-05-21: 7,445.72 2026-05-22: 7,473.47 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers β€” do NOT recalculate) Target range: 500.00 – 750.00 Current value: 7,473.47 Position: ABOVE range by 6,723.47 (896.5% above upper bound) IMPORTANT: These are VALUE C

    May 25Open β†’

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 7.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.011
MARKET ACCURACY
0.032
EDGE
+21.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the S&P 500 be between 7500 and 7524.9999 on May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?, classifying it as overpriced at 18.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED β€” PRISM estimate 10.5% vs market 18.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 0.3% (ΒΌ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only β€” not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths β€” updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.174-run-rescue-autopilotΒ·Forecasted: May 25, 2026Β·Resolved: May 29, 2026Β·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTS β†’