1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 23, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 6:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 14% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 23, 12:29 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +16% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
13.5%
The market was pricing this event at 13.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
80.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Market slightly overprices tail risk of third-party military action against Iran
- ▸Verified intelligence shows no credible signals from other nations planning strikes
FACTORS FOR
- +Regional escalation spiral involving Gulf states
- +Proxy conflict expansion beyond current participants
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No intelligence indicating third-party military planning
- −Current conflict contained to US-Israel-Iran triangle
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 12.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.018
EDGE
+18.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 13.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 13.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 23, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.