🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

PRISM
1.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
13.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-14pp

PRISM detected 7.4pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model estimate: 1%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+16% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 6:03 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.4ppPRISM 1% · Market 14%
PRISM
1.0%
VS
MARKET
13.5%
EDGE DETECTED7.4pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+18
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
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1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 23, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 6:03 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 1% vs market 14% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 23, 12:29 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +16% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
13.5%

The market was pricing this event at 13.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
80.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Market slightly overprices tail risk of third-party military action against Iran
  • ▸Verified intelligence shows no credible signals from other nations planning strikes
FACTORS FOR
  • +Regional escalation spiral involving Gulf states
  • +Proxy conflict expansion beyond current participants
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No intelligence indicating third-party military planning
  • −Current conflict contained to US-Israel-Iran triangle
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 12.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.018
EDGE
+18.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 13.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 13.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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WIN
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 23, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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