What happened
This market resolved YES on June 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 19, 10:06 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 98% vs market 84% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Jun 1, 4:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +19% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 84.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Available evidence indicates the 12th integrated Starship flight has already occurred within the window
- ▸If that FAA-licensed launch is confirmed as Flight 12, resolution should be YES
- +Verified sources indicate a Starship 12th launch on May 19, 2026
- +Starship is in active test cadence with multiple prior launches
- +Only one successful occurrence of Flight 12 is required
- +No evidence of an indefinite FAA stand-down
- +Social and news analysis heavily favor a YES outcome
- −Some ambiguity whether the May 19 launch is officially Flight 12
- −Launch listing comes from a smaller, non-official news site
- Starship - Next Spaceflightnextspaceflight.com
20 May 2026. 6:00 AM to 11:00 PM. Primary. Beach and Road ... Booster 13 and Ship 31 were the Super Heavy and Starship pair launched on Starship Flight 6.
May 19Open → - Launch Schedule - Space Launch Nowspacelaunchnow.me
A spaceflight launch schedule for Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center, Vandenberg AFB, Wallops Island, SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, Rocket Lab and much more ...
May 19Open → - SpaceX Launches Starlink 10-31 Mission from Cape Canaveral ...youtube.com
Watch LIVE as SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites aboard Falcon 9, to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space ...
May 19Open → - May 18, 2026 – Our Awesome Universeawesome-universe.com
May 18, 2026: ESA/China launch of SMILE mission (link); May 19, 2026: SpaceX Starship 12th launch (link); May 19-21, 2026: AIAA ASCEND 2026 (link); May 31, 2026 ...
May 19Open → - FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) resolution contextkalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com
Source: FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Resolution field: SpaceX launches Starship flight test number N before deadline. Outcome verified from FAA. Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/SPACEX.pdf Known rule risks: $1.27M+ volume — massive tech/space speculation market; FAA is the SOLE resolution source — NOT SpaceX announcements, NOT live streams; FAA data delay clause: if FAA data is delayed, market expiry shifts per Kalshi Rule 6.3b
May 19Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 14.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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