What happened
This market resolved YES on May 30, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 25, 12:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 54% vs market 50% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 30, 4:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +100% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 50.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 47%
- ▸WTI is currently well above the $112.25 threshold, so a further decline by settlement is somewhat less likely than the market implies
- +Front-month futures quote 91.88 is close to 91.00 threshold
- +Recent sharp drop from previous close 96.60 to 91.88 indicates downside momentum
- −EIA spot at 112.25 implies substantial 23.35% buffer above threshold
- −Only 114 hours remain for an additional decisive downside move
- Oil Price (WTI) on May 29, 2026 - Prediction Markets - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
Oil Price (WTI) on May 29, 2026. $93.00 to $93.9947¢. $94.00 to $94.9945¢.
May 23Open → - Crude oil futures settle at $96.35, down 1.94% on claims of US-Iran ...investinglive.com
Crude oil futures settle at $96.35, down 1.94% on claims of US-Iran draft agreement. Commodities · Giuseppe Dellamotta. 21/05/2026 | 11:49 GMT-7.
May 22Open → - What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of May 25 2026? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
View real-time odds for "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of May 25 2026?" as of May 22, 2026 and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
May 23Open → - Oil Price (WTI) on Friday? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(July 2026 contract) on May 29, 2026 is below 91.00 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome ...
May 22Open → - Crude Oil Price Analysis - 29 MAY 2026 | this The Best time To Invest?youtube.com
... Futures & Options as well as swing trading Master class from beginners ... WTI crude, WTI crude oil, WTI crude oil forecast, WTI oil price, WTI crude ...
May 24Open → - Crude Oil Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Crude Oil Futures - Settlements ; FEB 27, 78.96, 80.67 ; MAR 27, 77.59, 79.72 ; APR 27, 77.19, 78.67 ; MAY 27, 76.55, 77.98B ...
May 21Open → - Crude Oil Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Crude Oil. Futures and Options. Globex Code. CLN6. Last. 97.00. Change. +0.65 (+0.67%). Volume. 241,610. Watchlists. Last Updated23 May 2026 10:29:45 PM CT.
May 22Open → - Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) - EIAeia.gov
2026 May- 4 to May- 8, 109.76, 105.66, 98.75, 98.38, 98.87. 2026 May-11 to May-15, 101.56, 105.78, 104.52 ... Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products.
May 20Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $91.00 $/barrel Current value: $112.25 Distance to target: $21.25 ABOVE target (23.4% above) Direction required: Value must fall to or stay b
May 25Open → - EIA verified energy dataeia.gov
## VERIFIED EIA ENERGY DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — the OFFICIAL government source. This is the SAME data Kalshi uses to settle energy markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with other sources. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED, OFFICIAL Latest change: UP $3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target threshold: $91.00 $/barrel Current EIA v
May 25Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 4.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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