What happened
This market resolved YES on May 19, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 18, 10:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 30% vs market 27% — NONE FAIR
- May 18, 8:09 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 11%
- May 18, 8:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 27% → 16% (-11pp)
- May 19, 4:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 16.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Current reporting confirms the multi-union LIRR strike is still active very close to the resolution deadline
- ▸With all five unions needing to permanently end the strike by then, late hard bargaining materially lowers the YES probability
- +Both sides reported as relatively close on economics.
- +High public and political pressure to restore service quickly.
- −Strike still active on May 18 with no agreement announced.
- −All five unions must fully end strike, not just suspend.
- −Key sticking point on fourth-year pay remains unresolved.
- −No court order or binding back-to-work mechanism evident.
- LIVE | LIRR workers go on strike after failing to reach deal with ...youtube.com
MTA officials give an update on contract talks with LIRR unions as the strike deadline passes.
May 16Open → - LIRR strike threat grows as commuters brace for possible ...youtube.com
A potential Long Island Rail Road strike could begin Saturday, with negotiations continuing between the MTA and unions representing thousands of workers.
May 14Open → - LIRR STRIKE: Trains shut down as workers walk out for the ...youtube.com
The two sides have been negotiating for months on a new contract, but the unions were legally allowed to strike starting at 12:01 a.m. NBC New York's Greg ...
May 16Open → - MTA negotiators give update on LIRR strike talksyoutube.com
MTA negotiators spoke to the press Monday afternoon to give an update on their negotiations with striking workers. For video licensing inquiries, ...
May 18Open → - Exploring Manhattan's Penn Station LIRR STRIKE NYC IN ...youtube.com
LIRR unions, MTA negotiating again as strike approaches Day 3 | Team Coverage ... Hochul holds a news conference on day 2 of the LIRR strike. Eyewitness ...
May 18Open → - Queens Borough president discusses LIRR strike impactyoutube.com
Queens Borough President Donovan Richards Jr. talked to Eyewitness News after the Hochul news conference.
May 17Open → - Police Investigating Near Americana Manhassetlongisland.news12.com
More From News12. 01:48. LIRR Strike. LIRR UPDATES: LIRR unions and MTA summoned to meet in effort to resume bargaining on Day 2 of LIRR strike · 01:56. CX ...
May 13Open → - Penn Station track fire latest: LIRR trains impactedfox5ny.com
Penn Station track fire latest: LIRR trains impacted. video ; LIRR strike deadline looms as MTA, unions clash over pay raises. video ; 100 days later, Nancy ...
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 5.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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