What happened
This market resolved NO on May 25, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
3 events- May 22, 8:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 29% vs market 20% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 23, 10:10 PMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 14% — edge +5.6pp
- May 25, 2:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +25% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 20.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates the national average of $4.564 remains below the $4.660 threshold with insufficient momentum for a 2.1% surge before settlement
- ▸The market's 20% probability appears elevated relative to current price trajectory and seasonal patterns
- +Current price near threshold at $4.564
- +Recent upward weekly price trend
- −Requires ~2.1% price increase in short window
- −No immediate catalyst identified for sustained spike
- −Social/news estimate suggests 12% probability
- War Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Surge - NerdWalletnerdwallet.com
Average gas and diesel prices by state ; Delaware, $4.340, $5.514 ; Florida, $4.213, $5.158 ; Georgia, $3.999, $5.087 ; Hawaii, $5.635, $7.117.
May 18Open → - Map Compares the Price of Gas in Your State With the Rest of the USbusinessinsider.com
Business Insider made an interactive map that shows how gas prices compare across states as national averages stay above $4.
May 16Open → - Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highsgasprices.aaa.com
The national average for a gallon of regular is at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year. Current prices are close to what ...
May 21Open → - Gasoline prices, liter, 18-May-2026 - GlobalPetrolPrices.comglobalpetrolprices.com
Gasoline prices, liter, 18-May-2026. Gasoline prices, Octane-95, 18-May-2026: The average price of gasoline around the world is 1.53 U.S. Dollar per liter.
May 17Open → - U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)eia.gov
2024, 3.197, 3.328 ; 2025, 3.196, 3.247 ; 2026, 2.936, 3.039 ...
May 18Open → - U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...
May 19Open → - Gas prices in the US in May 2026 Odds and Forecast | Octagon AIoctagonai.co
GasBuddy's 2026 fuel price outlook forecast table provides a projected monthly average for May of $3.12 per gallon, with a narrower range of $2.99–$3.23.
May 23Open → - Gas Prices in Pennsylvania 2026: Outlook & Saving Tips | Rechargedrecharged.com
Pennsylvania gas prices and taxes in 2026 ; $3.20–$3.60. Typical 2026 range ; 58.7¢. State gas tax ; $3.10–$3.30. US forecast avg. ; 8–12%. Budget impact.
May 19Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 9.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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