What happened
This market resolved NO on May 20, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
12 events- May 2, 6:09 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 77% vs market 77% — NONE FAIR
- May 8, 8:05 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 77% → 71% (-6pp)
- May 13, 2:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 71% → 46% (-25pp)
- May 13, 8:09 PMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 61% — edge +0.1pp
- May 13, 8:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 46% → 56% (+11pp)
- May 14, 8:09 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 56% → 66% (+10pp)
- May 17, 6:02 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 66% → 49% (-18pp)
- May 18, 6:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 49% → 38% (-11pp)
- May 19, 2:05 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 38% → 46% (+8pp)
- May 19, 10:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 42%
- May 19, 10:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 46% → 37% (-9pp)
- May 20, 3:12 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 36.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Thomas Massie appears modestly undervalued given incumbency advantages in House primaries despite a Trump-backed challenger
- ▸The key trade point is that only winning the primary nomination matters for resolution
- +Incumbent representatives historically win renomination at very high rates
- +Market may overreact to single Trump endorsement in a localized race
- −Race described by CBS News as a tossup
- −Trump endorsement and heavy spending increase upset risk
- Full interview: GOP Rep. Thomas Massie on his primary ...youtube.com
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie is bearing the brunt of the White House in his primary race for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District against Trump-backed Ed ...
May 19Open → - Breaking down the heated Massie-Gallrein primary race in ...youtube.com
President Trump is pulling no punches as he backs former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein against incumbent GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in the primary for Kentucky's 4th ...
May 19Open → - Thomas Massie LIVE: 'I'll Even Let Donald Trump…' GOP ...youtube.com
Thomas Massie Speech LIVE | Kentucky Primary Rally LIVE | Trump vs Massie | GOP Civil War | Ed Gallrein | US News Watch live coverage as Republican ...
May 19Open → - Full interview: GOP Rep. Thomas Massie on Israel, Trump and ...cbsnews.com
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie is bearing the brunt of the White House in his primary race for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District against Trump-backed Ed ...
May 19Open → - The Republican primary everyone's watching: Thomas Massie ...youtube.com
The race is Kentucky's 4th Congressional District has turned into one of the most expensive and closely watched primaries in the U.S. After more than a ...
May 19Open → - Kornacki: Gallrein victory over Massie in Kentucky primary ...youtube.com
Voters are heading to the polls in six states today as President Trump tests his grip over the Republican Party. NBC News correspondents Monica Alba, ...
May 19Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 5.4% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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