What happened
This market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 25, 12:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 14% vs market 23% β MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 31, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +30% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 23.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high β the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- βΈProbability estimate: 18%
- βΈAAAβs current $4.564 average is materially below $4.75, so a large, rapid nationwide increase is unlikely by resolution
- +Recent weekβoverβweek prices are rising, not falling
- +Short time window leaves less chance for a downside reversal
- βCurrent AAA average $4.564 sits well below $4.75 threshold
- βOnly modest recent weekly increases; large jump would be atypical
- Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highsgasprices.aaa.com
The national average for a gallon of regular is at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year. Current prices are close to what ...
May 22Open β - U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)eia.gov
U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices.
May 19Open β - U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)eia.gov
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...
May 20Open β
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 9.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths β updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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