What happened
This market resolved NO on June 4, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
13 events- May 13, 12:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 35% vs market 36% — NONE FAIR
- May 14, 8:04 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 19%
- May 14, 8:04 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 36% → 56% (+21pp)
- May 15, 10:05 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 56%
- May 16, 2:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 29%
- May 16, 2:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 56% → 35% (-22pp)
- May 17, 10:05 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 33%
- May 18, 12:05 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 63%
- May 19, 4:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 39%
- May 19, 4:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 35% → 40% (+5pp)
- May 19, 10:04 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 40% → 32% (-8pp)
- May 20, 8:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 32% → 22% (-10pp)
- Jun 4, 12:34 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 56.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates slightly lower odds than the market that MicroStrategy reverses its six-year no-sale stance before the deadline
- ▸This implies a modest negative edge for YES relative to current pricing
- +Long horizon until deadline allows for unexpected liquidity or strategic needs.
- +Regulatory, tax, or governance pressures could force at least small sale.
- −Documented six-year pattern of only accumulating, never selling bitcoin.
- −Public, repeated commitment to 'acquire and hold' as core strategy.
- Copa Holdings Q1 EPS $5.16 Beats $4.61 Estimate, Sales $1.052B ...perplexity.ai
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? December 31, 2026. 86.0%. 3.5%. June 30, 2026. 69.0%. 6.9%. May 31, 2026 ... Largest Company end of May? NVIDIA. 95.0%.
May 19Open → - MSTR stock is beating Bitcoin, but another Strategy asset matters ...cryptoslate.com
Throughout 2026, MSTR stock and Strategy's preferred securities are trading as more than a simple Bitcoin proxy. Bitcoin is down about 12.5% year to date, ...
May 19Open → - Jarrod M. Patten sells Class A shares (MSTR) in multiple tradesstocktitan.net
Jarrod M. Patten reported multiple sales of MSTR Class A stock between 03/26/2026 and 05/14/2026, including 3400 shares for $444193.00 and 2750 shares for ...
May 19Open → - Strategy Stock Price History - Investing.cominvesting.com
Access Strategy stock price history with daily data, historical prices, all-time highs, and stock chart history. Download and analyze trends easily.
May 20Open → - Verified crypto market datacoingecko.com
## VERIFIED CRYPTO DATA (USE THESE NUMBERS — DO NOT HALLUCINATE PRICES) CRITICAL: The following price data is verified and current as of this moment. Use ONLY these numbers in your analysis. DO NOT substitute with any other price data. Asset: Bitcoin (BTC) Current Price: $77,213 (VERIFIED — use this exact number) 24h Change: +0.20% 7d Change: -4.62% All-Time High: $126,080 (-38.8% from ATH) Market Cap: $1546.7B 24h Volume: $27.2B ## ANTI-CONFUSION RULE (MANDATORY) CRITICAL: Market probability (e.g., 38% chance of YES) is NOT the same as price movement (e.g., 5.2% decline needed). These are completely different numbers. Never confuse them. - "38% probability" = the market thinks there is a 38
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 37.5% mispricing
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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