Will above 90000 jobs be added in May 2026? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 5, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

5 events

May 15, 4:43 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 80% vs market 32% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 24, 6:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 53% — edge +19.0pp
May 25, 4:08 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 50%
May 25, 4:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 32% → 39% (+7pp)
Jun 5, 2:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

32.0%

The market was pricing this event at 32.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

80.0%

EDGE DETECTED

5.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Probability estimate: 41%
▸Recent BLS data show still-positive job growth, making a >90,000 gain slightly more likely than current pricing implies

FACTORS FOR

+April gains of 115,000 already exceed the 90,000 threshold
+Unemployment steady at 4.3% with relatively tight job openings ratio

FACTORS AGAINST

−Softening labor market with prior month showing a large job loss
−High month-to-month volatility and potential negative revisions below threshold

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Underlying economy sustains modest expansion with payrolls >90k30%

Consensus turns very low but data surprise prints just above 90k11%

Evidence 52%

SOURCES (1)

last week

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summarybls.gov
Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary. For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, May 19, 2026 USDL-26-0761 Technical information: Employment: (202) ...
May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 48.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.247

MARKET ACCURACY

0.372

EDGE

+124.9

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will above 90000 jobs be added in May 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 32.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 80.0% vs market 32.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.169-commodity-source-repair·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: June 5, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.