₿Crypto/KALSHI/April 3, 2026
kalshi market

Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026?

PRISM
85.2%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
65.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+35pp

PRISM detected 13.7pp mispricing — and was right

Market priced this at 66%. PRISM saw 85% — a 13.7pp gap. The outcome confirmed the underpricing.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+53% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 3, 2026 at 4:04 PM
STRONG · UNDERPRICED+13.7ppPRISM 85% · Market 66%
PRISM
85.2%
VS
MARKET
65.5%
EDGE DETECTED13.7pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
STRONG
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+97
PUBLISHED
Apr 3, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 3, 4:04 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 85% vs market 66% — STRONG UNDERPRICED

  2. Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Prism was right. +53% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
65.5%

The market was pricing this event at 65.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
85.2%
EDGE DETECTED
13.7pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
53.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Bitcoin currently trades at $66,844, already $544 above the $66,299.99 threshold
  • ▸Market underprices probability given current positioning and modest volatility requirements
FACTORS FOR
  • +Current price already above threshold
  • +Only needs to maintain current levels
  • +Recent price stability around target zone
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Crypto volatility can cause rapid declines
  • −Several hours remain until resolution
  • −Recent 2.7% decline shows downside risk
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 19.7% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.022
MARKET ACCURACY
0.119
EDGE
+97.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 65.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 85.2% vs market 65.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 3, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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