Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 25, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

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Forecast Tape

2 events

May 23, 2:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 90% vs market 85% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 25, 6:09 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +18% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

84.5%

The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

90.0%

EDGE DETECTED

5.5pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a high likelihood the ceasefire persists through the short remaining window
▸Strict criteria for qualifying kinetic action further reduce the probability of a disqualifying event

FACTORS FOR

+Recent statements from both sides affirm ceasefire remains intact
+Very short remaining time window to trigger and confirm violation

FACTORS AGAINST

−Regional tensions create non-trivial risk of sudden escalation
−Ambiguity around covert or deniable actions near Iranian territory

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

No US aerial bombs, drones, or missiles hit Iranian territory82%

Any action either not on Iranian soil or not confirmed in time8%

Evidence 55%Cluster: us-iran

SOURCES (3)

last day

United Arab Emirates in the 2026 Iran war - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
28 February 2026 – present (2 months, 3 weeks and 1 day) · United Arab Emirates, Iran · Ongoing. Ceasefire since 8 April 2026 ...
May 22Open →
Iran Update Special Report, May 22, 2026understandingwar.org
The US-Iran negotiations reportedly made “slight progress,” but Iran's enriched uranium and the Strait of Hormuz remain the sticking points.
May 22Open →
Iran-US war latest: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hails 'good ...independent.co.uk
Iran has been rebuilding its military capacity much faster than expected during a six-week ceasefire with the US and Israel, according to new US intelligence ...
May 22Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.010

MARKET ACCURACY

0.024

EDGE

+14.0

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?, classifying it as underpriced at 84.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 90.0% vs market 84.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.152-kalshi-nearterm-recall·Forecasted: May 23, 2026·Resolved: May 25, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.