What happened
This market resolved YES on May 29, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 24, 2:11 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 2% vs market 18% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 29, 11:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 18.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a required +35% move in five days is a near-impossible volatility event
- ▸The target range is far above the current verified index level of 7,473.47
- ▸This forecast is driven by the extreme magnitude of the required move against historical precedent
- +Extreme short-term bullish momentum required
- −Target range 35% above current level
- −Narrow 25-point acceptance window
- −Macro data risk one day prior
- S&P 500 Index Charts, Data - GuruFocusgurufocus.com
S&P 500 Index was 7473.47 as of 2026-05-22, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historically, S&P 500 Index reached a record high of 7501.24 and a record low of ...
May 22Open → - Economic Calendar: May 25 - May 29, 2026 - Yelzayelza.com
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May 23Open → - Top Earnings Week: Dell, Salesforce & AI Stocks 2026 - Tickerontickeron.com
The S&P 500 has staged a notable recovery in 2026 as fears of a deep recession have moderated, but investors remain alert to guidance disappointments ...
May 23Open → - S&P price range tomorrow at 4pm EDT? 1 - Kalshikalshi.com
The market will close on May 20, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after May 20, 2026.
May 19Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — S&P 500 INDEX (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: S&P 500 Index Latest Value: 7,473.47 (as of 2026-05-22) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +27.75 (+0.37%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-18: 7,403.05 2026-05-19: 7,353.61 2026-05-20: 7,432.97 2026-05-21: 7,445.72 2026-05-22: 7,473.47 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target range: 500.00 – 757.00 Current value: 7,473.47 Position: ABOVE range by 6,716.47 (887.2% above upper bound) IMPORTANT: These are VALUE C
May 24Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 16.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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