What happened
This market resolved YES on May 28, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 14, 8:09 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 27% vs market 38% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 28, 4:37 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 37.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Natural gas futures are currently below $3.20 but within a typical volatility move for the remaining May window
- ▸Intraday‑high based resolution and contract‑roll mechanics modestly raise the chance of a brief spike
- +Only a single 1‑minute high at $3.20 is required.
- +Current futures level is within historical monthly volatility range to $3.20.
- −Spot and futures currently trade meaningfully below the $3.20 threshold.
- −Bearish fundamentals with high inventories and mild demand outlook.
- What Price Will Natural Gas Hit Week of May 11? - Lines.comlines.com
Natural gas futures entered the week of May 11, 2026, with the Henry Hub benchmark trading near the $3.20 to $3.30 range, caught between competing forces: a ...
May 11Open → - US natgas futures rise 3% as output falls and Waha prices stay negativeboereport.com
Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.29 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 ...
May 11Open → - Natural Gas Price Analysis | 14 - 15 May 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
Natural Gas Price Analysis | 14 - 15 May 2026 | Natural Gas Forecast | Natural Gas News Today #xng #xngusd #xngusdlive #naturalgas #natgas #hnu #hnd ...
May 13Open → - Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — WTI Reclaims ...fxempire.com
NG futures are trading at $2.889 on the 4-hour NYMEX timeframe, bouncing from $2.78 with bullish green candles pushing price back over the red MA near $2.83.
May 14Open → - Natural Gas Up or Down on May 12? - Lines.comlines.com
The market question is direct: does natural gas (NG) settle higher or lower on May 12, 2026, with resolution at 21:00 UTC? Contract pricing at $0.16 YES and ...
May 12Open → - [PDF] Weekly Natural Gas Market Report - Jupiter Energy Advisorsaskjupiter.ca
As of May 8, 2026, Jupiter es mates 101 Bcf of working natural gas to be in storage in Ontario. This quan ty is 16.9% less than the 5- year average. Updated ...
May 8Open → - Natural Gas Price Analysis | 14 - 15 MAY 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
naturalgas #naturalgasanalysis Natural Gas price analysis for 14 - 15 May 2026 || Natural gas Analysis || 2026 || natural Gas Outlook || Is this The Best ...
May 13Open → - Natural Gas enters timing-sensitive phase as LNG risks persist - FXStreetfxstreet.com
Natural gas continues trading inside a timing-sensitive framework shaped by LNG flows and shipping risk. European LNG concentration and Hormuz uncertainty ...
May 14Open → - Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu) - EIAeia.gov
2024, 3.18, 1.72 ; 2025, 4.13, 4.19 ; 2026, 7.72, 3.62 ...
May 13Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: Henry Hub Natural Gas Latest Value: $2.82 (as of 2026-05-11) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$0.07 (+2.55%) Trend (last 5 observations): FALLING 2026-05-05: $2.83 2026-05-06: $2.75 2026-05-07: $2.70 2026-05-08: $2.75 2026-05-11: $2.82 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $3.20 $/MMBtu Current value: $2.82 Distance to target: $0.38 BELOW target (11.9% below) IMPORTANT: These are VALUE CHANGES, not probabil
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 10.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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