1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 10, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 36% vs market 30% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Apr 12, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
29.5%
The market was pricing this event at 29.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
36.0%
EDGE DETECTED
3.1pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
9.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.3%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Orbán's structural electoral advantages overcame similar polling deficits in 2022
- ▸Current opposition lead may face same systemic headwinds
FACTORS FOR
- +Proven electoral system manipulation capabilities
- +Trump administration backing
- +2022 precedent overcoming polls
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Independent polls show massive opposition lead
- −16-year incumbency fatigue
- −Unified opposition candidate
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Structural advantages overcome polling deficit like 202220%
Independent polls systematically underestimate Fidesz support8%
Campaign momentum or external events shift voters4%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 6.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.130
MARKET ACCURACY
0.087
EDGE
-42.9
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?, classifying it as underpriced at 29.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 36.0% vs market 29.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.3% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 10, 2026·Resolved: April 12, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.