🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/May 11, 2026
polymarket market

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

PRISM
39.4%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
45.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+55pp

PRISM detected 3.4pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 39% against the market's 46%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 6, 2026 at 8:05 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+3.4ppPRISM 39% · Market 46%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
39.4%
VS
MARKET
45.5%
EDGE DETECTED3.4pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-5
PUBLISHED
May 11, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

9 events
  1. May 4, 8:08 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 35% vs market 41% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 6, 8:05 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 39%

  3. May 7, 12:10 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 41%

  4. May 8, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 41% → 62% (+21pp)

  5. May 9, 10:05 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 62% → 53% (-9pp)

  6. May 10, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 53% → 77% (+25pp)

  7. May 10, 6:05 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 77% → 59% (-19pp)

  8. May 11, 8:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 59% → 64% (+5pp)

  9. May 12, 1:36 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
45.5%

The market was pricing this event at 45.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
39.4%
EDGE DETECTED
3.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Estimated probability is 66%, modestly above the 63.5% market price
  • ▸The key risk is a future escalation leading to limited ground incursions crossing the Litani despite diplomatic pressure
FACTORS FOR
  • +Ongoing Israel–Hezbollah tensions with repeated cross‑border military activity
  • +Historical precedent for Israeli operations reaching or crossing the Litani
  • +Two‑year window leaves time for conflict escalation dynamics
  • +Domestic Israeli pressure to push Hezbollah farther from border
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Strong UNIFIL and LAF presence around the Litani line
  • −High diplomatic costs of deep incursion into Lebanon
  • −US and international incentives to contain escalation
  • −Crossing requires overt, credibly reported ground movement, not just strikes
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Limited IDF ground raid pushes past Litani during escalation38%
Broader Israel–Hezbollah war with deep advance past Litani18%
Previously clandestine crossing later confirmed by credible reporting10%
Evidence 38%
SOURCES (1)
last day
  • Who Wants Hezbollah to Stay Armed? - Foreign Policyforeignpolicy.com

    It saw some early success seizing weapons and deploying Lebanese Armed Forces soldiers south of the Litani River. Then came the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, ...

    May 11Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 6.1% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.138
MARKET ACCURACY
0.133
EDGE
-4.6
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 45.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 39.4% vs market 45.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS
RELATED INTEL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.9.115-official-connector-evidence·Forecasted: May 11, 2026·Resolved: May 12, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTS →