🏛Politics/POLYMARKET/May 26, 2026
polymarket market
Election result

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

PRISM
43.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
34.8%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-35pp

PRISM detected 8.3pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 43% against the market's 35%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 19, 2026 at 12:07 AM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+8.3ppPRISM 43% · Market 35%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +1.3pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
43.0%
VS
MARKET
34.8%
EDGE DETECTED8.3pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
+26
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 7, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

6 events
  1. Apr 26, 12:12 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 26% vs market 32% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 12, 8:09 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 25% — edge +5.2pp

  3. May 15, 12:04 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 30% — edge +0.5pp

  4. May 19, 12:07 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 43%

  5. May 26, 12:09 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 24%

  6. Jun 7, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
34.8%

The market was pricing this event at 34.8% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
43.0%
EDGE DETECTED
8.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Roberto Sánchez Palomino remains a longshot despite a 28.8% market price
  • ▸This suggests the contract is moderately overpriced relative to available polling and media signals
FACTORS FOR
  • +Peruvian politics highly fragmented, creating room for surprise finalists.
  • +Long runway before 2026 election allows narrative shifts.
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Not treated as front-rank contender in major international coverage.
  • −No recent polling surges or major campaign milestones reported.
  • −Bearish social sentiment with a 4.0% heuristic probability estimate.
  • −Association with prior crisis-era government may cap broad appeal.
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Unifies a major left coalition and reaches runoff, then wins14%
Collapse of better-known contenders boosts him as compromise outsider8%
Evidence 41%
SOURCES (1)
last day
  • LASA2026 Congress Programlasaweb.org

    ... LASA2026 is the longest international Congress we have ever organized. There will be five presidential panels on the major subthemes of “Republic and ...

    May 26Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 8.3% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.057
MARKET ACCURACY
0.083
EDGE
+26.3
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?, classifying it as underpriced at 34.8%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 43.0% vs market 34.8%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 7, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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