Will more than 2650000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 25, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

4 events

May 23, 2:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 24% vs market 23% — NONE FAIR
May 24, 12:10 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 48%
May 24, 12:10 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 23% → 33% (+10pp)
May 25, 2:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

33.0%

The market was pricing this event at 33.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

48.0%

EDGE DETECTED

5.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸The threshold of 2.65 million daily average is historically high for late May, even accounting for Memorial Day travel
▸Without verified daily data for the specific week, the forecast remains anchored near the base rate

FACTORS FOR

+Memorial Day weekend typically boosts travel volumes.

FACTORS AGAINST

−2.65 million daily average is a very high seasonal bar.

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Multiple peak days push weekly average above 2.65M28%

Elevated traffic across entire week meets threshold20%

Evidence 40%

SOURCES (2)

last day

Colorado Springs Airport, TSA and Memorial Day Weekend Trigger ...travelandtourworld.com
Millions of Americans are expected to flood airports and highways during Memorial Day weekend as TSA checkpoints and road travel hit record levels.
May 23Open →
TSA Launched A New Airport Security Program - PlanetWareplanetware.com
The TSA is taking airport security screening to the next level with TSA Gold+, a program that is set to make traveling smoother and more efficient.
May 23Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 15.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.230

MARKET ACCURACY

0.109

EDGE

-121.5

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will more than 2650000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?, classifying it as underpriced at 33.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 48.0% vs market 33.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

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PRISM: v0.9.159-structured-micro-sizing·Forecasted: May 24, 2026·Resolved: May 25, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.