What happened
This market resolved NO on June 10, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
6 events- May 1, 6:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 17% vs market 20% — NONE FAIR
- May 12, 8:07 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 20% → 34% (+14pp)
- May 20, 4:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 34% → 28% (-6pp)
- May 21, 4:26 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 25%
- May 21, 4:26 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 28% → 20% (-8pp)
- Jun 10, 2:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 20.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a modest chance that May headline CPI exceeds 0.6% MoM despite recent strength
- ▸Energy-driven spikes and persistence in shelter could sustain another above‑trend print
- +Recent months showed elevated MoM CPI, including 0.9% and 0.6%.
- +Energy prices and shelter have recently driven stronger inflation momentum.
- −Base rate for 0.7%+ MoM CPI is historically low.
- −Policy tightening and normalization trends point to moderate, not extreme, monthly prints.
- Market View: Week of May 15, 2026 - Osaic Researchresearch.osaic.com
As expected, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hot again last month, rising 0.6% in April after increasing 0.9% in March. Consecutive months of sharply ...
May 19Open → - Inflation Heats Up Amid Rising Energy Costs - NAMnam.org
In April, consumer prices increased 0.6% from March and 3.8% over the year, up from the 3.3% annual rise in March and the greatest over-the-year increase ...
May 19Open → - US inflation surprises but signals unclear | State Streetssga.com
Consumer price inflation accelerated another half a percentage point to 3.8% YoY, the highest read since May 2023. Much of this reflected ongoing increases in ...
May 18Open → - Inflation - April 2026 | Higher Rock Educationhigherrockeducation.org
12-month All-Items CPI: Surged to 3.8% in April following a 3.3% increase in March. April's All-Items CPI: Rose 0.6% after increasing 0.9% in March. 12-Month ...
May 19Open → - Economic Outlook: May 2026 - Pumps & Systemspumpsandsystems.com
The index for final demand excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.6%, the largest advance since an increase of 0.6% in October 2025. For the year ...
May 15Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — CPI (ALL URBAN CONSUMERS) (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: CPI (All Urban Consumers) Latest Value: 332.41 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +2.11 (+0.64%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.03 2026-01-01: 326.59 2026-02-01: 327.46 2026-03-01: 330.29 2026-04-01: 332.41 Related indicator — Core CPI: 335.42 (as of 2026-04-01), change: +1.26 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: 0.60 index Current value: 332.41 Distance to target:
May 21Open → - BLS verified labor/inflation databls.gov
## VERIFIED BLS DATA — CPI-U (ALL ITEMS) (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the OFFICIAL resolution source for Kalshi economic markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) — OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT DATA Series: CUSR0000SA0 Indicator: CPI-U (All Items) Reference Period: April 2026 Latest Index Value: 332.407 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Previous Month Value: 330.293 Month-over-Month Change: +2.114 (+0.640%) Year-over-Year Change: +12.105 (+3.779%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.031 2026-01-01: 326.588 2026-02-01: 327.460 2026-03-01: 330.29
May 21Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 5.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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