What happened
This market resolved NO on May 29, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 26, 6:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 37% vs market 15% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 29, 11:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 15.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a moderate chance the index finishes in this narrow band
- ▸The index is already near 7,500, but typical daily volatility makes precise band hits uncertain
- +Index already near 7,500 with rising short-term trend.
- +Target band only modestly above recent verified close.
- +No known adverse macro events fixed for resolution date.
- −Very narrow 25-point band versus typical daily volatility.
- −One-week horizon leaves exposure to macro or earnings shocks.
- −Single 4pm print required; intraday touches do not count.
- S&P Global Announces Pricing of $2,000,000,000 Private Offering of ...press.spglobal.com
The offering is expected to close on May 29, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The Issuer has also entered into a $500 million senior unsecured ...
May 20Open → - Wall Street Poised for Test: Tech Reports, Inflation Data, Higher ...investing.com
The U.S. weekly market probability map for May 25 - 29, 2026, suggests “Shorter trading weeks tend to be bullish!”. These probability maps are derived from ...
May 25Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — S&P 500 INDEX (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: S&P 500 Index Latest Value: 7,473.47 (as of 2026-05-22) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +27.75 (+0.37%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-18: 7,403.05 2026-05-19: 7,353.61 2026-05-20: 7,432.97 2026-05-21: 7,445.72 2026-05-22: 7,473.47 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target range: 500.00 – 752.00 Current value: 7,473.47 Position: ABOVE range by 6,721.47 (893.8% above upper bound) IMPORTANT: These are VALUE C
May 26Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 22.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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