🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 18, 2026
polymarket market
Geopolitical event

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

PRISM
27.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
37.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-38pp

PRISM detected 6.8pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 38%. Model estimate: 28%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+60% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 18, 2026 at 12:04 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+6.8ppPRISM 28% · Market 38%
PRISM
27.5%
VS
MARKET
37.5%
EDGE DETECTED6.8pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+65
PUBLISHED
Apr 18, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 18, 12:04 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 28% vs market 38% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 1, 6:54 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +60% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
37.5%

The market was pricing this event at 37.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
27.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
26.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.3%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Iran maintains authorization requirements for Hormuz transit with no signals toward unrestricted access agreements
  • ▸Market overprices diplomatic speculation against Iran's consistent control assertions and recent IRGC exercises
FACTORS FOR
  • +Scheduled Iran-US indirect talks April 22-24
  • +Regional de-escalation pressure from oil markets
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No Iranian diplomatic signals on unrestricted access
  • −IRGC continues routine naval exercises asserting control
  • −US State Department confirms no progress on talks
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran unilaterally announces unrestricted navigation policy8%
US-Iran bilateral agreement includes Hormuz unrestricted access10%
UN or regional multilateral framework with Iranian commitment4%
Cluster: us-iran
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.076
MARKET ACCURACY
0.141
EDGE
+65.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?, classifying it as overpriced at 37.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 27.5% vs market 37.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.3% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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RELATED INTEL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 18, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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