1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 18, 12:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 28% vs market 38% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 1, 6:54 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +60% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
37.5%
The market was pricing this event at 37.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
27.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
26.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.3%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Iran maintains authorization requirements for Hormuz transit with no signals toward unrestricted access agreements
- ▸Market overprices diplomatic speculation against Iran's consistent control assertions and recent IRGC exercises
FACTORS FOR
- +Scheduled Iran-US indirect talks April 22-24
- +Regional de-escalation pressure from oil markets
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No Iranian diplomatic signals on unrestricted access
- −IRGC continues routine naval exercises asserting control
- −US State Department confirms no progress on talks
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran unilaterally announces unrestricted navigation policy8%
US-Iran bilateral agreement includes Hormuz unrestricted access10%
UN or regional multilateral framework with Iranian commitment4%
Cluster: us-iran
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.076
MARKET ACCURACY
0.141
EDGE
+65.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?, classifying it as overpriced at 37.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 27.5% vs market 37.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.3% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 18, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.