Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

10 events

May 10, 8:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 23% vs market 28% — NONE FAIR
May 10, 10:05 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 28% → 20% (-8pp)
May 18, 12:05 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 20% → 32% (+12pp)
May 19, 2:08 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 32% → 17% (-15pp)
May 21, 4:05 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 17% → 23% (+6pp)
May 21, 6:09 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 27%
May 21, 6:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 23% → 34% (+11pp)
May 22, 2:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 23%
May 22, 2:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 34% → 26% (-8pp)
Jun 1, 1:57 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

33.5%

The market was pricing this event at 33.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

27.0%

EDGE DETECTED

6.5pp

FORECAST

MODERATE OVERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a low probability of a definitive agreement given the White House's public stance linking sanctions relief to Iran's nuclear concessions
▸The market appears to be overestimating the likelihood of a breakthrough before the deadline

FACTORS FOR

+Ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Iran
+Market pricing reflects some probability of a last-minute deal

FACTORS AGAINST

−White House publicly states 'no sanctions relief' without Iran giving up enriched uranium
−No official announcement of agreement as of May 26
−Short timeframe remaining until May 31 deadline

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Formal treaty or deal signed including sanctions relief5%

Public announcement of definitive agreement by Trump or official17%

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 6.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.056

MARKET ACCURACY

0.070

EDGE

+14.4

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?, classifying it as overpriced at 33.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 27.0% vs market 33.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.192-strict-claim-quarantine·Forecasted: May 27, 2026·Resolved: June 1, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.