What happened
This market resolved NO on May 23, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 22, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 46% vs market 31% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 23, 2:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 31.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates roughly balanced odds that Truflation’s eggs index exceeds $2.78 on the date
- ▸Volatile egg pricing and missing direct Truflation time series constrain confidence around a near-coinflip forecast
- +General CPI trend is rising, supporting modest upward egg price pressure
- +Nearby-date Kalshi markets suggest eggs index hovering in high-$2.70s zone
- −Egg prices are historically volatile and prone to sharp mean reversion
- −Lack of direct Truflation eggs series or recent egg-specific news increases uncertainty
- Price of a dozen eggs tomorrow Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 20, 2026 is above $2.76 per dozen eggs, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Truflation.
May 19Open → - Price of a dozen eggs tomorrow Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 21, 2026 is above $2.70 per dozen eggs, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Truflation.
May 20Open → - Historic earnings boom outpaces meteoric stock market surgesabrientsystems.com
Looking ahead to the May inflation metrics, the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast model predicts CPI of +4.18%, Core CPI of +2.82%, PCE of +4.06%, and Core PCE of ...
May 18Open → - Price of a dozen eggs tomorrow Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 19, 2026 is above $2.75 per dozen eggs, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Truflation.
May 18Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — CPI (ALL URBAN CONSUMERS) (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: CPI (All Urban Consumers) Latest Value: 332.41 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +2.11 (+0.64%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.03 2026-01-01: 326.59 2026-02-01: 327.46 2026-03-01: 330.29 2026-04-01: 332.41 Related indicator — Core CPI: 335.42 (as of 2026-04-01), change: +1.26 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: 22.00 index Current value: 332.41 Distance to target:
May 22Open → - BLS verified labor/inflation databls.gov
## VERIFIED BLS DATA — CPI-U (ALL ITEMS) (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the OFFICIAL resolution source for Kalshi economic markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) — OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT DATA Series: CUSR0000SA0 Indicator: CPI-U (All Items) Reference Period: April 2026 Latest Index Value: 332.407 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Previous Month Value: 330.293 Month-over-Month Change: +2.114 (+0.640%) Year-over-Year Change: +12.105 (+3.779%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.031 2026-01-01: 326.588 2026-02-01: 327.460 2026-03-01: 330.29
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 15.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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