1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 10:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 40% vs market 74% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 1, 2:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +277% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
73.5%
The market was pricing this event at 73.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
40.3%
EDGE DETECTED
24.1pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
41.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸T1 holds perfect 2-0 head-to-head dominance over KT Rolster including recent sweep
- ▸Historical matchup data suggests market slightly undervalues T1's Game 1 probability
FACTORS FOR
- +T1's 100% head-to-head win rate
- +Recent 2-0 sweep of KT Rolster
- +Superior overall team strength
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Single game variance in esports
- −KT's potential strategic preparation
- −Early season unpredictability
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 33.2% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.162
MARKET ACCURACY
0.540
EDGE
+377.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner, classifying it as overpriced at 73.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 40.3% vs market 73.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.