1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 16, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 6:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 5% vs market 23% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 16, 6:39 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +30% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
23.0%
The market was pricing this event at 23.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
5.5%
EDGE DETECTED
7.6pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
47.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Trump's March 31 timeline suggests forces out in 2-3 weeks, targeting April 14-21 window
- ▸Market overprices precise April 15 announcement probability given military operation conclusion timing uncertainty
FACTORS FOR
- +Trump stated primary goals achieved March 31
- +2-3 week exit timeline aligns with deadline
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Timeline targets April 14-21, potentially missing cutoff
- −No formal announcement signals yet detected
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 17.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.003
MARKET ACCURACY
0.053
EDGE
+49.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?, classifying it as overpriced at 23.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 5.5% vs market 23.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 16, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.