πŸ“ˆFinance/KALSHI/May 23, 2026
kalshi market
Daily 5pm ET close

Will the gold close price be above 4531.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

PRISM
59.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
67.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+33pp

PRISM detected 8.0pp overconfidence β€” and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 67%. Model estimate: 59%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+69% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 23, 2026 at 12:06 PM
MODERATE Β· OVERPRICED+8.0ppPRISM 59% Β· Market 67%
Live view diverged Β· PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +10.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
59.0%
VS
MARKET
67.0%
EDGE DETECTED8.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+111
PUBLISHED
May 23, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 29, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

β—ˆ

Forecast Tape

5 events
  1. May 23, 6:06 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 44% vs market 46% β€” NONE FAIR

  2. May 23, 12:06 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE β†’ MODERATE at Prism 59%

  3. May 23, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 46% β†’ 67% (+21pp)

  4. May 23, 6:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 67% β†’ 59% (-8pp)

  5. May 29, 11:00 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Prism was right. +69% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE Β· AT FORECAST TIME
67.0%

The market was pricing this event at 67.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high β€” the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
59.0%
EDGE DETECTED
8.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (ΒΌ Kelly Β· cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • β–ΈGold futures already trade just below the 4,531.99 threshold with 2026 forecasts comfortably higher
  • β–ΈThis proximity plus bullish 2026 targets imply a substantial chance the May 29 close finishes above
FACTORS FOR
  • +Current front‑month futures price is only slightly below 4,531.99.
  • +Major bank 2026 targets sit well above the strike level.
FACTORS AGAINST
  • βˆ’Recent drift has been modestly downward amid higher real yields.
  • βˆ’Event hinges on a single day’s close, increasing noise risk.
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Gold trends modestly higher into May 29 and settles above 4,531.9952%
Macro or geopolitical shock spikes gold above the level on May 2918%
Intraday trading on May 29 pushes close just over 4,531.996%
Evidence 41%
SOURCES (5)
last week
  • Gold Price Forecast | Fed Minutes And US Yield Pressure - Capital.comcapital.com

    Gold spot prices trades at $4,552.26 as of 1:29pm UTC on 18 May 2026, sitting below all four key daily moving averages. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs are clustered ...

    May 19Open β†’
  • 29 May 2026, Gold Price Prediction Next Week, XAUUSD ... - YouTubeyoutube.com

    Gold at Forecast | 22 - 29 May 2026 | Gold Price Today | XAUUSD Trading Strategy | XAU/USD | XΓ£u | Xauusd chart | Xauusd live #gold #goldpriceanalysis ...

    May 21Open β†’
  • IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026icmarkets.com

    What can we expect from Gold today? Gold is still trading near elevated levels, but the latest headlines show it slightly softer, with price tracking around ...

    May 22Open β†’
  • Gold Price Forecast in 2026: Is It Possible to Reach $6,000? - Mitrademitrade.com

    As of mid-May 2026, spot gold trades around $4,567 to $4,705 per troy ounce, roughly 16% below the all-time high of $5,608 set on January 29, 2026. The ...

    May 21Open β†’
  • Gold Price May 29 2026 - Prediction Markets - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

    What will the price of Gold be on May 29, 2026? Get paid $1 per contract when your prediction is correct, or $0 if not.

    May 22Open β†’

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 8.0% edge call was wrong β€” market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.058
MARKET ACCURACY
0.168
EDGE
+110.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the gold close price be above 4531.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?, classifying it as overpriced at 67.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED β€” PRISM estimate 59.0% vs market 67.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: β€”% (ΒΌ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only β€” not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths β€” updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.154-macro-family-dedupΒ·Forecasted: May 23, 2026Β·Resolved: May 29, 2026Β·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTS β†’