PRISM INTELLIGENCE ARCHIVE

PRISM = EdgeCal's research system

Where PRISM saw it differently.

Every scored forecast across event contract markets — what the market priced, what PRISM estimated, and what actually happened. Each analysis is Brier-scored and published in the public ledger.

All94 Kalshi94 Polymarket0

SCORED

94

HIT RATE

48%

PRISM

0.208

MARKET

0.206

FULL SCOREBOARD →

FEATURED ANALYSIS

📈FinanceMACRO

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >110.99 on Apr 8, 2026?

Oil at $107 with two days to settle. Market priced 78% it would close above $111. Prism’s 68% read the supply pipeline — barrels stayed flat. +355% on the discipline.

🏛PoliticsMACRO

Will the President's approval rating be below 40.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism saw that RCP approval was already above the threshold — market was pricing fear, not data.

Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?

Kalshi had BTC at 50/50. Prism called 76%. The market was asleep on verified price data.

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ALL RESOLVED INTELLIGENCE(91)

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >103.99 on Apr 17, 2026?

Mid-April oil at $99. Market priced 53% on a $104 close. Prism’s 43% tracked supply fundamentals correctly — settlement landed below threshold. +115% return.

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism called this narrow band unlikely. The market agreed at 21.5%. Reality landed inside — a precision miss.

Ethereum price at Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Ethereum already trading 6% above the threshold with 24 hours to settle. Market priced 54%, Prism saw 73%. Already-there pattern captured cleanly.

Ethereum price at Apr 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Kalshi ETH at 65%. Prism said 89%. Short resolution + already above threshold = free edge.

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 1, 2026?

Market priced at 34%. PRISM saw 43% — a 9.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.20ㅤ?

PRISM estimated 50% vs market's 43%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending May 29, 2026 be above 2800ㅤ?

PRISM estimated 71% vs market's 49%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?

PRISM estimated 64% vs market's 55%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 51.0?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 72% — a 5.7pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 22%. Model: 7%. The correction came through.

ELECTION RESULT

Will above 50000 jobs be added in May 2026?

PRISM estimated 72% vs market's 63%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will US durable goods orders MoM for April 2026 be above -0.5%?

Market priced at 63%. PRISM saw 75% — a 11.7pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.70?

PRISM estimated 31% vs market's 22%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will US personal spending MoM for April 2026 be above 0.5%?

PRISM estimated 67% vs market's 58%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Samsung Electronics labor union strike before Jun 1, 2026?

PRISM estimated 37% vs market's 47%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will a human case of Andes virus in India be reported before Jun 1, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 18%. Model: 13%. The correction came through.

Will the S&P 500 be between 7525 and 7549.9999 on May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 37% vs market's 15%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Canada Ivey PMI s.a. for May 2026 be above 53.0?

Market priced at 32%. PRISM saw 38% — a 5.9pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Australia Westpac consumer confidence change for June 2026 be above 5.0%?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 16%. Model: 12%. The correction came through.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.75?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 23%. Model: 14%. The correction came through.

Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Market priced at 23%. PRISM saw 31% — a 8.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

DAILY 5PM ET CLOSE

Will Japan consumer confidence for May 2026 be above 33.0?

Market priced at 33%. PRISM saw 40% — a 7.3pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the price of the Bezel Omega Index be Above $5534 at May 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 53% vs market's 48%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the S&P 500 be between 7500 and 7524.9999 on May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 18%. Model: 10%. The correction came through.

Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 25, 2026 be above $2.78 per dozen eggs?

PRISM estimated 85% vs market's 79%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0?

PRISM estimated 90% vs market's 67%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the Number of Airport Passengers Screened on May 25, 2026 be above 2980000?

PRISM estimated 56% vs market's 32%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will above 90000 jobs be added in May 2026?

PRISM estimated 80% vs market's 32%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 50%. Model: 45%. The correction came through.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30699.9900 at the end of May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 84% vs market's 15%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the price of the Bezel Rolex Index be Above $12882 at May 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 50% vs market's 81%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?

PRISM estimated 70% vs market's 75%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 91.00 USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026?

Market priced at 50%. PRISM saw 54% — a 4.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.530?

PRISM estimated 87% vs market's 64%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.580?

PRISM estimated 44% vs market's 35%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Samsung Electronics labor union strike before May 25, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 43%. Model: 39%. The correction came through.

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on May 27, 2026?

PRISM estimated 29% vs market's 25%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on May 26, 2026?

PRISM estimated 28% vs market's 22%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the S&P 500 be between 7575 and 7599.9999 on May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 2% vs market's 18%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will more than 2650000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?

PRISM estimated 48% vs market's 33%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Brent Crews be the Charbroil 300 winner?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 16%. Model: 5%. The correction came through.

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.660?

Market priced at 20%. PRISM saw 29% — a 9.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.54 and 4.56 on May 29, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 72%. Model: 67%. The correction came through.

Will the gold close price be above 4531.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 67%. Model: 59%. The correction came through.

DAILY 5PM ET CLOSE

Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

PRISM estimated 78% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DAILY 5PM ET CLOSE

Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 42%. Model: 7%. The correction came through.

ELECTION RESULT

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 26, 2026?

Market priced at 84%. PRISM saw 94% — a 10.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 22, 2026 be above $2.78 per dozen eggs?

PRISM estimated 46% vs market's 31%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 23, 2026?

Market priced at 59%. PRISM saw 87% — a 28.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Brent Crews finish in the top 3 at NASCAR Bully Hill Vineyards 176 at The Glen?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 31%. Model: 9%. The correction came through.

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 22, 2026?

PRISM estimated 57% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?

PRISM estimated 25% vs market's 20%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

Market priced at 18%. PRISM saw 27% — a 9.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 18, 2026 to May 24, 2026?

Market priced at 37%. PRISM saw 84% — a 47.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 457 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 74% vs market's 52%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will above 110000 jobs be added in May 2026?

PRISM estimated 67% vs market's 22%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 31, 2026?

Market priced at 84%. PRISM saw 98% — a 14.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 80000?

PRISM estimated 74% vs market's 80%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 90000?

PRISM estimated 46% vs market's 67%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the five LIRR unions (BLET, BRS, IAMAW, IBEW, TCU) stop striking before May 19, 2026?

PRISM estimated 11% vs market's 16%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the five LIRR unions (BLET, BRS, IAMAW, IBEW, TCU) stop striking before May 21, 2026?

Market priced at 51%. PRISM saw 55% — a 4.1pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Who will win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State primary?

PRISM estimated 47% vs market's 60%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?

PRISM estimated 27% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 19, 2026?

PRISM estimated 27% vs market's 22%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will above 30000 jobs be added in April 2026?

Market priced at 71%. PRISM saw 75% — a 3.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Uber Technologies, Inc. report above 3.7 billion Trips in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 21%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 43% vs market's 51%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 52% vs market's 62%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in April 2026?

PRISM estimated 75% vs market's 83%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be <106.00 on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 85% — a 7.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in March 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 23%. The correction came through.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Will Janice STFU be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jun 6, 2026

PRISM estimated 9% vs market's 22%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Drake rank 1, 2, and 3 on the Billboard 200 chart dated May 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 19% vs market's 78%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Rotten Tomatoes score?

PRISM estimated 70% vs market's 48%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Olivia Rodrigo be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 76%. Model: 67%. The correction came through.

Will Ariana Grande be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?

PRISM estimated 73% vs market's 83%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Drake have above 523,883,787 Streams on Luminate from May 15 - May 21, 2026?

PRISM estimated 63% vs market's 70%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?

PRISM estimated 44% vs market's 31%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Top US Netflix Show on Apr 13, 2026?

PRISM estimated 76% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 92% — a 14.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 84% — a 18.1pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 69%. PRISM saw 88% — a 19.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 17%. Model: 6%. The correction came through.

SOL price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 54%. PRISM saw 73% — a 18.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026?

Market priced at 77%. PRISM saw 91% — a 14.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 6% vs market's 23%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Ethereum price at Apr 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 68%. PRISM saw 92% — a 24.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 81%. PRISM saw 96% — a 15.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 85% — a 19.7pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

These are resolved calls

See the live forecasts.

Live PRISM analysis across event contract markets — edge scores, probability estimates, and confidence levels updated in real time.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.