PRISM INTELLIGENCE ARCHIVE

PRISM = EdgeCal's research system

Where PRISM saw it differently.

Every scored forecast across event contract markets — what the market priced, what PRISM estimated, and what actually happened. Each analysis is Brier-scored and published in the public ledger.

All26 Kalshi26 Polymarket0

SCORED

26

HIT RATE

69%

PRISM

0.159

MARKET

0.194

FULL SCOREBOARD →

FEATURED ANALYSIS

📈FinanceMACRO

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >110.99 on Apr 8, 2026?

Oil at $107 with two days to settle. Market priced 78% it would close above $111. Prism’s 68% read the supply pipeline — barrels stayed flat. +355% on the discipline.

🏛PoliticsMACRO

Will the President's approval rating be below 40.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism saw that RCP approval was already above the threshold — market was pricing fear, not data.

Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?

Kalshi had BTC at 50/50. Prism called 76%. The market was asleep on verified price data.

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ALL RESOLVED INTELLIGENCE(23)

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >103.99 on Apr 17, 2026?

Mid-April oil at $99. Market priced 53% on a $104 close. Prism’s 43% tracked supply fundamentals correctly — settlement landed below threshold. +115% return.

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism called this narrow band unlikely. The market agreed at 21.5%. Reality landed inside — a precision miss.

Ethereum price at Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Ethereum already trading 6% above the threshold with 24 hours to settle. Market priced 54%, Prism saw 73%. Already-there pattern captured cleanly.

Ethereum price at Apr 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Kalshi ETH at 65%. Prism said 89%. Short resolution + already above threshold = free edge.

Will above 30000 jobs be added in April 2026?

Market priced at 71%. PRISM saw 75% — a 3.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Uber Technologies, Inc. report above 3.7 billion Trips in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 21%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 43% vs market's 51%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 52% vs market's 62%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be <106.00 on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 85% — a 7.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in March 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 23%. The correction came through.

BLS CPI RELEASE

Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Top US Netflix Show on Apr 13, 2026?

PRISM estimated 76% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 92% — a 14.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 84% — a 18.1pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 69%. PRISM saw 88% — a 19.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 17%. Model: 6%. The correction came through.

SOL price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 54%. PRISM saw 73% — a 18.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026?

Market priced at 77%. PRISM saw 91% — a 14.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 6% vs market's 23%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Ethereum price at Apr 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 68%. PRISM saw 92% — a 24.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 81%. PRISM saw 96% — a 15.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 85% — a 19.7pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

These are resolved calls

See the live forecasts.

Live PRISM analysis across event contract markets — edge scores, probability estimates, and confidence levels updated in real time.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.