📈Finance/KALSHI/April 11, 2026
kalshi market
BLS CPI release

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in April 2026?

PRISM
75.4%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
82.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+18pp

PRISM detected 4.7pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 75% against the market's 83%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 11, 2026 at 4:04 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+4.7ppPRISM 75% · Market 83%
PRISM
75.4%
VS
MARKET
82.5%
EDGE DETECTED4.7pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
-30
PUBLISHED
Apr 11, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 11, 4:04 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 75% vs market 83% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 12, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
82.5%

The market was pricing this event at 82.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
75.4%
EDGE DETECTED
4.7pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
8.6%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.2%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Market pricing reflects momentum from March's 0.9% energy-driven spike, but April lacks confirmed energy disruption catalysts
  • ▸Base rate analysis suggests 82.5% probability overestimates likelihood of sustained above-0.3% inflation
FACTORS FOR
  • +March 0.9% momentum from energy crisis
  • +Iran war ongoing oil supply disruptions
  • +Shutdown bias correction creating upward pressure
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Energy spikes typically temporary and mean-reverting
  • −Core CPI remained moderate at 0.2% in March
  • −No confirmed April-specific inflation catalysts
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran war energy disruptions persist through April35%
Multiple categories drive sustained price increases25%
BLS methodology adjustments create upward statistical pressure15%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 7.1% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.061
MARKET ACCURACY
0.031
EDGE
-30.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in April 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 82.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 75.4% vs market 82.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.2% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.7.6·Forecasted: April 11, 2026·Resolved: May 12, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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