Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 23, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events

May 21, 4:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 37% vs market 44% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
May 23, 6:08 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +77% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

43.5%

The market was pricing this event at 43.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

37.0%

EDGE DETECTED

6.5pp

FORECAST

MODERATE OVERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Historical patterns suggest MrBeast’s flagship uploads more often overshoot than land precisely in the 70–80M band
▸This implies a moderate but clearly sub-50% probability of resolving in-range

FACTORS FOR

+Recent week-one views often fall in or near this range.
+Channel scale and engagement support 70M+ in seven days.

FACTORS AGAINST

−Base-rate skew toward 80M+ week-one views on flagship uploads.
−Next upload could be unusually weak or unusually viral, missing the band.

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Normal-performing flagship video lands between 70M and 80M by day seven30%

Somewhat weaker concept or slower growth nonetheless reaches 70–80M in seven days7%

Evidence 37%

SOURCES (3)

last day

of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
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PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 6.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.137

MARKET ACCURACY

0.189

EDGE

+52.3

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?, classifying it as overpriced at 43.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 37.0% vs market 43.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.136-kalshi-first-intake·Forecasted: May 21, 2026·Resolved: May 23, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.