What happened
This market resolved NO on May 26, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
7 events- May 20, 2:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 53% vs market 46% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 21, 4:26 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 71%
- May 21, 4:26 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 46% → 69% (+23pp)
- May 22, 8:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 75%
- May 22, 2:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 82%
- May 22, 2:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 69% → 81% (+13pp)
- May 26, 1:30 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 46.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Estimated probability: 83% that no qualifying U.S
- ▸strike on Iranian soil occurs by the deadline
- ▸Market may underweight stringent strike definition and active ceasefire diplomacy for this short horizon
- +Ceasefire formally still in place despite localized violations
- +Active U.S.–Iran diplomatic channel and new proposal via mediators
- −Intelligence suggests Iran rapidly rebuilding missile and drone capacity
- −Ceasefire assessed as fragile with ongoing limited regional attacks
- Live Updates: Rubio says "slight progress" in Iran peace talks, but ...cbsnews.com
Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in mid-April, but Israel and Hezbollah have continued fighting despite the agreement, which the Iranian- ...
May 22Open → - Iran Confirms Receiving New US Ceasefire Proposal ... - YouTubeyoutube.com
1. Add a comment... 18:21. Go to channel Geo Headlines · Early Morning Headlines Shake the World | Geo News 9AM Headlines May 22, 2026. Geo Headlines. New. 14K ...
May 21Open → - Iran Update Special Report, May 21, 2026 | ISWunderstandingwar.org
Iran is continuing to use the ceasefire period to reconstitute its drone and missile program. ... Iran could prevent ships from traversing the strait anytime it ...
May 21Open → - Iran-US war latest: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hails 'good ...independent.co.uk
Iran has been rebuilding its military capacity much faster than expected during a six-week ceasefire with the US and Israel, according to new US intelligence ...
May 22Open → - May 22, 2026 - FDDfdd.org
As Iran braced for conflict with the U.S., a key reg · Iran has discussed partnering with the Gulf stat · Senior Iranian officials maintain · The U.S. and Iran ...
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 6.9% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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