What happened
This market resolved NO on May 23, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
6 events- May 19, 10:06 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 27% vs market 18% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 20, 10:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 23%
- May 20, 10:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 18% → 24% (+6pp)
- May 20, 4:08 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 42%
- May 20, 4:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 24% → 54% (+30pp)
- May 23, 3:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +117% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 18.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a somewhat-below-even chance of House passage of any reconciliation bill before the deadline
- ▸Prior successful reconciliation and broad qualifying language raise odds, but no active bill is evident
- +Any reconciliation bill qualifies; no requirement for Senate action or signing
- +Recent Congress already passed a reconciliation law, proving procedural viability
- −No currently-identified active House bill labeled as reconciliation
- −Leadership focus appears on other legislative priorities, not new reconciliation
- Key Health Care Issues We are Tracking in 2026 in the Carolinasjdsupra.com
Senate Bill 370, introduced in 2025, would completely repeal North Carolina's CON laws but was not approved before the legislative session adjourned. The bill ...
May 19Open → - One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) - IRSirs.gov
Missing: reconciliation December 31
Jul 30Open → - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): What to Know and What to Dospencer-west.com
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) creates a window for taxpayers to utilise higher exemptions. Here's what to know and what to do.
May 19Open → - Increasing the Fee for Certain Aliens Ordered Removed in Absentia ...federalregister.gov
DHS is proposing to update the fee required by section 100016 of the Budget Reconciliation Act (known as the HR-1). This fee applies to certain aliens ...
May 20Open → - Disability Organizations Call on Congress to Prioritize Care, Access ...dredf.org
The proposed additional $71 billion in funding for ICE and CBP and harmful amendments are on top of the $170 billion received through the 2025 reconciliation ...
May 20Open → - Congress.gov verified legislative datacongress.gov
## VERIFIED CONGRESSIONAL DATA — LEGISLATIVE ACTION (Congress.gov — USE THESE FACTS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the official Congress.gov API and is verified. Use ONLY these facts. DO NOT fabricate bill numbers or status. Category: Legislative Action Bills Found: 5 active/recent bills matching "a reconciliation bill" ### Relevant Bills (most recently updated first): - HR 7529 (119th Congress) Title: Fresh Starts for Foster Youth Act Status: Status: Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 557. Progress: 20% through legislative process Last Action (2026-05-11): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 557. Origin: House - HR 6047 (119th Congress) Title: Sharri Briley and Eric Ed
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 9.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTS