What happened
This market resolved YES on May 27, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 19, 8:05 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 84% vs market 37% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 20, 2:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 37% → 72% (+35pp)
- May 20, 10:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 84% — edge +10.0pp
- May 27, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +39% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 37.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a very high likelihood that total Strait of Hormuz transits exceed 20 during May 18–24
- ▸Verified reports already show daily traffic alone well above the entire threshold
- +Iran reported 26 vessel transits in one 24-hour period
- +Prior week reportedly allowed more than 30 ships to pass
- +Even sharply reduced traffic still far above 20 over seven days
- +New authority suggests controlled but ongoing commercial flows
- −IMF PortWatch methodology may undercount or lag reported Iranian figures
- −Escalation risk could temporarily halt or sharply cut transits
- Iran say allowed 26 ships to transit Hormuz since Tues - RTHKgbcode.rthk.hk
Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy on Wednesday said they allowed over 25 vessels including oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.
May 20Open → - NATO considers deploying mission to secure Strait of Hormuz ...mezha.net
NATO is considering deploying forces to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if safe navigation is not restored by early July.
May 19Open → - EU agrees to remove tariffs on US goods - 1Lurer1lurer.am
EU agrees to remove tariffs on US goods. The EU has finally agreed to implement its trade deal with the US after five hours of talks between members of the ...
May 20Open → - IMF PortWatch resolution contextportwatch.imf.org
Source: IMF PortWatch Resolution field: 7-day moving average of transit calls through Strait of Hormuz above 60, per IMF PortWatch Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/POLITICALSTATTEMPORAL.pdf Known rule risks: Traders price this as geopolitical sentiment ("will Iran tensions ease?") but it's a DATA market with quantitative threshold; IMF PortWatch is publicly accessible — you can track the 7-day MA in real-time; "Transit calls" = ship passages, tracked by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 47.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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