1
What happened
This market resolved NO on June 8, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
◈
Forecast Tape
5 events- May 24, 6:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 32% vs market 36% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 26, 12:06 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 33%
- May 26, 12:06 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 36% → 43% (+7pp)
- May 26, 10:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 33% — edge +0.2pp
- Jun 8, 6:04 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
36.0%
The market was pricing this event at 36.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
31.6%
EDGE DETECTED
4.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates the market overprices a rapid, explicit, permanent US–Iran peace accord by the deadline
- ▸The stringent dual-confirmation criteria and short time window materially cap upside scenarios for YES
FACTORS FOR
- +Recent high-level focus on regional de-escalation could pivot to formal talks
- +Multilateral mediation frameworks exist that could host a broader agreement
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No verified sign of active permanent-peace negotiations or draft framework
- −Criteria require explicit, lasting end to hostilities from both governments
- −Complexity of US–Iran issues exceeds short remaining time window
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Direct US–Iran bilateral treaty ending hostilities permanently12%
UN or multilateral accord with explicit US–Iran permanent peace language10%
Existing or new ceasefire upgraded to explicit permanent peace10%
Cluster: us-iran
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 4.4% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.106
MARKET ACCURACY
0.141
EDGE
+35.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 36.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 31.6% vs market 36.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
🌍Geopolitics
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
🌍Geopolitics
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
🌍Geopolitics
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 8, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.