PRISM INTELLIGENCE ARCHIVE

PRISM = EdgeCal's research system

Where PRISM saw it differently.

Every scored forecast across event contract markets — what the market priced, what PRISM estimated, and what actually happened. Each analysis is Brier-scored and published in the public ledger.

All68 Kalshi0 Polymarket68

SCORED

68

HIT RATE

41%

PRISM

0.217

MARKET

0.180

FULL SCOREBOARD →

FEATURED ANALYSIS

🌍GeopoliticsMACRODIPLOMATIC EVENT

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Market priced 84% certainty the ceasefire would hold. Prism’s 76% reflected the fragility of bilateral talks. Six days later the framework collapsed — +545% return on the gap.

🌍GeopoliticsMACRO

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?

Market priced 42% probability of an Israeli strike on Yemen by April 15. Prism’s 1% reflected the total absence of operational signals. Two weeks confirmed no strike.

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

T1 was 84.5% favorite. Prism flagged overconfidence at 55%. The upset paid 5.45x. Biggest single call.

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ALL RESOLVED INTELLIGENCE(65)

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

When Prism gets it wrong: a ceasefire nobody expected, and what the miss teaches about geopolitical modeling.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

When historical dominance creates false certainty. T1 was unbeatable — until they weren't.

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

PRISM estimated 27% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 61% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

PRISM estimated 78% vs market's 61%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 37%. Model: 22%. The correction came through.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 44% vs market's 54%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 14%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

PRISM estimated 32% vs market's 36%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

PRISM estimated 27% vs market's 35%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?

Market priced at 85%. PRISM saw 90% — a 5.5pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 32%. Model: 24%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?

PRISM estimated 41% vs market's 36%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?

PRISM estimated 49% vs market's 43%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

PRISM estimated 53% vs market's 46%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?

PRISM estimated 71% vs market's 62%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 77%. Model: 72%. The correction came through.

ELECTION RESULT

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 44%. Model: 37%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

PRISM estimated 76% vs market's 67%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Market priced at 79%. PRISM saw 84% — a 5.5pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

PRISM estimated 42% vs market's 37%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 23% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

PRISM estimated 31% vs market's 21%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

PRISM estimated 47% vs market's 79%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

PRISM estimated 82% vs market's 77%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 49% vs market's 44%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?

PRISM estimated 27% vs market's 38%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

PRISM estimated 24% vs market's 74%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?

PRISM estimated 67% vs market's 71%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

PRISM estimated 39% vs market's 46%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

PRISM estimated 25% vs market's 35%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Market priced at 63%. PRISM saw 72% — a 8.9pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 31%. Model: 16%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 38%. Model: 28%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 40%. Model: 30%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 41%. Model: 31%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 24%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

PRISM estimated 36% vs market's 30%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 18%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 44%. Model: 37%. The correction came through.

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

PRISM estimated 70% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

PRISM estimated 33% vs market's 66%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 22%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 23%. Model: 5%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 36% vs market's 70%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 1% vs market's 33%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 29% vs market's 70%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 19%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

BOX OFFICE REPORT

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 19% vs market's 56%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 63% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 21%. Model: 13%. The correction came through.

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?

PRISM estimated 24% vs market's 17%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

PRISM estimated 58% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

CRYPTO WEEKLY CLOSE

LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Market priced at 45%. PRISM saw 61% — a 16.5pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?

Market priced at 55%. PRISM saw 63% — a 7.9pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

PRISM estimated 63% vs market's 72%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

PRISM estimated 18% vs market's 75%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 42%. Model: 9%. The correction came through.

Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 33%. Model: 17%. The correction came through.

CRYPTO WEEKLY CLOSE

Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 31?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 13%. The correction came through.

CRYPTO WEEKLY CLOSE

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

PRISM estimated 51% vs market's 59%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

PRISM estimated 55% vs market's 65%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

These are resolved calls

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Live PRISM analysis across event contract markets — edge scores, probability estimates, and confidence levels updated in real time.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.