What happened
This market resolved NO on July 7, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
18 events- Apr 26, 4:11 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 48% vs market 58% — NONE FAIR
- May 3, 8:03 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 58% → 48% (-10pp)
- May 9, 10:05 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 48% → 53% (+6pp)
- May 11, 4:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 53% → 42% (-12pp)
- May 13, 8:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 42% → 30% (-12pp)
- May 14, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 30% → 39% (+10pp)
- May 15, 3:55 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 39% → 28% (-11pp)
- May 18, 2:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 71%
- May 20, 4:06 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 24%
- May 21, 8:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 27%
- May 21, 8:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 28% → 36% (+8pp)
- May 22, 2:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 71% — edge +5.0pp
- May 22, 2:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 36% → 31% (-5pp)
- May 24, 6:07 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 31% → 51% (+20pp)
- May 25, 8:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 48%
- May 25, 4:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 51% → 56% (+5pp)
- May 26, 2:09 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 56% → 43% (-13pp)
- Jul 7, 3:27 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 31.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Strait of Hormuz traffic is unlikely to reach the PortWatch ≥60 threshold by June 30, 2026
- ▸Market pricing appears slightly optimistic given ongoing restrictions and expert flow timelines
- +Over a year remains for gradual recovery to accumulate
- +AIS-based routing could partially normalize even with some controls
- −Reuters reports traffic far below pre-war norms under Iranian controls
- −ADNOC CEO guiding full flow recovery only in 2027 or later
- Is Strait of Hormuz now open? More oil, LNG tankers cross Gulf ...gulfnews.com
Traffic has resumed on a limited basis under routes and controls imposed by Iran, but shipping volumes remain far below pre-war levels. Energy executives and ...
May 25Open → - Oil and LNG tankers return to the Strait of Hormuz after a three ...burgasmedia.com
After nearly three months of practically blocked traffic for major energy cargoes, oil and LNG tankers have begun to gradually resume passage through the Strait ...
May 25Open → - Nikkei: Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz 30 days after US dealcryptobriefing.com
Nikkei reports Iran will reopen Hormuz 30 days after a US deal; ceasefire extension by June 7 at 73.5% YES, Hormuz normal by May 31 at 3% YES.
May 25Open → - Oil down to 2-week low as US, Iran seen moving closer to peace dealdailysabah.com
Analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait to take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired. "We continue to believe that ...
May 25Open → - IMF PortWatch resolution contextportwatch.imf.org
Source: IMF PortWatch Resolution field: 7-day moving average of transit calls through Strait of Hormuz above 60, per IMF PortWatch Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/POLITICALSTATTEMPORAL.pdf Known rule risks: Traders price this as geopolitical sentiment ("will Iran tensions ease?") but it's a DATA market with quantitative threshold; IMF PortWatch is publicly accessible — you can track the 7-day MA in real-time; "Transit calls" = ship passages, tracked by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data
May 26Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 39.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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