What happened
This market resolved YES on May 28, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
3 events- May 23, 6:56 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 64% vs market 63% — NONE FAIR
- May 26, 2:10 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 75%
- May 28, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +59% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 63.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 69%
- ▸Consensus around a solid positive April print makes a drop below -0.5% an unusually bearish tail scenario
- +Consensus forecast near +3.5% is far above -0.5% bar
- +Prior month already modestly positive at +0.85% per FRED data
- −Headline durable goods series is volatile and aircraft orders can swing prints
- −Limited depth/liquidity suggests market might incorporate specialist information
- Week Ahead - May 25th - Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com
April's personal income and outlays, the PCE price index, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP will be closely watched. Housing data is in ...
May 22Open → - U.S. Census Bureau / FRED resolution contextcensus.gov
Source: U.S. Census Bureau / FRED Resolution field: Manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders release: new orders for durable goods month-over-month change Frequency: monthly Known rule risks: Durable goods orders are released by the Census Bureau, usually at 8:30 AM ET; Headline durable goods and core capital goods are different fields — do not substitute one for the other; MoM change is derived from seasonally adjusted monthly values; revisions can shift the threshold boundary
May 26Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Latest Value: $318,909.00 (as of 2026-03-01) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$2,676.00 (+0.85%) Trend (last 5 observations): FALLING 2025-11-01: $324,305.00 2025-12-01: $321,342.00 2026-01-01: $319,975.00 2026-02-01: $316,233.00 2026-03-01: $318,909.00 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $202.00 millions $ Current value: $318,909.00 Distance to target: $318,707.00 ABOVE targ
May 26Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 11.7% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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