1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 16, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 2:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 43% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 16, 7:54 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +74% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
42.5%
The market was pricing this event at 42.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
29.1pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
87.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Israel has not retaliated against Yemen despite 34 days of war and recent Houthi missile attacks
- ▸Market overprices escalation probability given Israel's focus on Iran and US de-escalation timeline
FACTORS FOR
- +Houthis launched first attacks March 28
- +Regional war escalating since February
- +Israel has history of responding to attacks
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No Yemen strikes in 34 days of war
- −Israel targeting Iran directly instead
- −US expects conclusion in weeks not months
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 41.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.181
EDGE
+180.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 42.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 42.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 16, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.