📈Finance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market

Will the price of the Bezel Rolex Index be Above $12882 at May 31, 2026?

PRISM
50.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
81.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+19pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 50% against the market's 81%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 24, 2026 at 4:10 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 50% · Market 81%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
50.0%
VS
MARKET
81.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
+4
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 31, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 24, 4:10 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 50% vs market 81% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 25, 6:07 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 82%

  3. May 31, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
81.0%

The market was pricing this event at 81.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
50.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 76%, modestly below the 81% market-implied level
  • ▸Macro headwinds and missing live index data justify slightly more caution than current pricing
FACTORS FOR
  • +Market already prices high odds of being above strike
  • +Any intraday print above $12,882 on date suffices
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Luxury watch market facing cyclical and demand headwinds
  • −No verified current Bezel Rolex Index level available
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Index currently above strike and stays above into May 3160%
Index currently below or near strike but pops above intraday16%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 31.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.032
MARKET ACCURACY
0.036
EDGE
+3.7
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the price of the Bezel Rolex Index be Above $12882 at May 31, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 81.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 50.0% vs market 81.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.167-fresh-source-hygiene·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 31, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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