1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 6, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 6% vs market 23% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
23.0%
The market was pricing this event at 23.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
5.7%
EDGE DETECTED
12.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
75.4%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Ethereum at $2,151.2 needs upward movement to reach 2160-2199 range by 5pm EDT
- ▸Recent daily volatility of 2-4% creates uncertainty about maintaining target zone
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price near lower bound of range
- +Recent upward trend +5.46% daily
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Need sustained move above current levels
- −High intraday volatility risk
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price rises 0.4-2.2% and maintains through 5pm12%
Intraday volatility spike lands in target range6%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 17.4% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.890
MARKET ACCURACY
0.593
EDGE
-297.3
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as overpriced at 23.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 5.7% vs market 23.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.2·Forecasted: April 6, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.