1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 7, 5:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 91% vs market 77% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +30% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
77.0%
The market was pricing this event at 77.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
91.4%
EDGE DETECTED
8.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
62.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Bitcoin currently trades at $68,213, above the $67,999.99 threshold but with modest downside risk
- ▸Market pricing appears slightly optimistic given current proximity to strike level
FACTORS FOR
- +Currently above threshold at $68,213
- +Only needs to maintain $68,000 level
- +Short timeframe until 5 PM EDT settlement
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Recent 24h decline of -1.94%
- −Trading below key moving averages
- −Extreme Fear sentiment (index: 12)
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price stays above $68,000 through 5 PM EDT65%
Small decline but remains above threshold10%
Intraday volatility pushes below $68,00025%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 14.4% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.007
MARKET ACCURACY
0.053
EDGE
+45.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 77.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 91.4% vs market 77.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 7, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.