1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 3, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 3, 10:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 18% vs market 75% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 3, 2:10 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
75.0%
The market was pricing this event at 75.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
18.1%
EDGE DETECTED
44.5pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
74.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Aurora holds competitive advantages with 71% winrate and #4 ranking versus 1win's #17 position
- ▸Market pricing at 75% appears slightly elevated given Aurora's historical performance suggests ~70% probability
FACTORS FOR
- +Aurora #4 world ranking vs 1win #17
- +71% winrate statistical advantage
- +Previous 2-1 head-to-head victory November 2025
FACTORS AGAINST
- −BO3 format increases variance potential
- −Match already in progress limits predictive edge
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 56.9% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.670
MARKET ACCURACY
0.063
EDGE
-607.6
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, classifying it as overpriced at 75.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 18.1% vs market 75.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSPRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 3, 2026·Resolved: April 3, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.