1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 4:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 68% vs market 78% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +355% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
78.0%
The market was pricing this event at 78.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
68.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
12.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.2%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸WTI at $104.69 needs 6% surge to $110.99 within 14 hours with no fresh catalysts
- ▸Market pricing appears overly optimistic given stable fundamentals
FACTORS FOR
- +Strong recent momentum (+3.39% latest session)
- +Historical volatility enables large intraday moves
- +Geopolitical risk premium potential
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No bullish catalysts in social sentiment
- −6% move required in short timeframe
- −Recent peak already passed in March
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Major geopolitical development drives oil surge25%
Unexpected supply disruption or inventory data20%
Technical momentum continues from recent gains15%
Large trader position drives settlement spike7%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.462
MARKET ACCURACY
0.608
EDGE
+146.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >110.99 on Apr 8, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 78.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 68.0% vs market 78.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.2% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.