₿Crypto/POLYMARKET/March 31, 2026
polymarket market
Crypto weekly close

Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 31?

PRISM
13.1%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
29.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-30pp

PRISM detected 8.7pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model estimate: 13%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+42% return
ISSUED FORECASTMar 31, 2026 at 10:03 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+8.7ppPRISM 13% · Market 30%
PRISM
13.1%
VS
MARKET
29.5%
EDGE DETECTED8.7pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+70
PUBLISHED
Mar 31, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Mar 31, 10:03 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 13% vs market 30% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 1, 4:00 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +42% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
29.5%

The market was pricing this event at 29.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
13.1%
EDGE DETECTED
8.7pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
41.6%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Bitcoin at $68,216 needs 1.1% gain to reach $69,000 with under 12 hours left on March 31
  • ▸Recent price action shows consolidation and resistance near current levels
FACTORS FOR
  • +Only 1.1% move required
  • +High volatility asset capable of quick moves
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Less than 12 hours remaining
  • −Price consolidating with resistance shown
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 16.4% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.017
MARKET ACCURACY
0.087
EDGE
+69.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 31?, classifying it as overpriced at 29.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 13.1% vs market 29.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: March 31, 2026·Resolved: April 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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