📈Finance/KALSHI/May 6, 2026
kalshi market

Will Uber Technologies, Inc. report above 3.7 billion Trips in Q1 2026?

PRISM
34.4%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
50.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-50pp

PRISM detected 7.6pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 34% against the market's 50%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 1, 2026 at 4:06 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.6ppPRISM 34% · Market 50%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +1.6pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
34.4%
VS
MARKET
50.0%
EDGE DETECTED7.6pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
-24
PUBLISHED
May 6, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 8, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

13 events
  1. Apr 29, 6:05 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 53% vs market 49% — NONE FAIR

  2. Apr 30, 6:07 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 49% → 56% (+7pp)

  3. May 1, 4:06 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 34%

  4. May 1, 4:06 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 56% → 50% (-6pp)

  5. May 1, 2:10 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 27%

  6. May 1, 2:10 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 50% → 39% (-11pp)

  7. May 1, 10:11 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 37% — edge +0.0pp

  8. May 2, 4:13 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 39% → 32% (-7pp)

  9. May 3, 10:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 32% → 53% (+21pp)

  10. May 4, 4:10 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 53% → 33% (-20pp)

  11. May 4, 12:12 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 33% → 49% (+16pp)

  12. May 4, 8:08 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 49% → 35% (-14pp)

  13. May 8, 4:30 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
50.0%

The market was pricing this event at 50.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
34.4%
EDGE DETECTED
7.6pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a modestly higher chance than implied that Uber’s Q1 2026 Trips exceed 3.7 billion
  • ▸With consensus near the threshold, small demand surprises can swing resolution
FACTORS FOR
  • +Historical Q1 trips growth around mid-to-high teens year-over-year
  • +Analyst consensus ~3.65B with upward revision to 3.68B
  • +Q4 2025 trips already at 3.95B, showing strong momentum
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Threshold is above current consensus, leaving limited upside buffer
  • −Q1 seasonality typically weaker than Q4 for mobility demand
  • −Any macro or regulatory shock could slow trip growth below target
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Demand beats expectations, trips materially above consensus and 3.7B20%
Trips roughly in line with consensus but just clear 3.7B18%
SOURCES (2)
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PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 15.6% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.139
MARKET ACCURACY
0.116
EDGE
-23.7
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Uber Technologies, Inc. report above 3.7 billion Trips in Q1 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 50.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 34.4% vs market 50.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.102-provider-calibration·Forecasted: May 6, 2026·Resolved: May 8, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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