1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 16, 10:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 31% vs market 41% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 1, 6:43 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +70% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
41.3%
The market was pricing this event at 41.3% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
31.3%
EDGE DETECTED
7.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
24.2%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
4.5%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Iran explicitly refused stockpile surrender in collapsed Islamabad negotiations despite US pressure
- ▸Market overprices likelihood given Iran's consistent rejection of uranium handover demands
FACTORS FOR
- +US blockade increasing economic pressure
- +Ceasefire deadline April 21 creating urgency
- +Turkish mediators expressing optimism
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Iran explicitly refused stockpile surrender in talks
- −Pezeshkian vowed no surrender publicly
- −15-20 year gap in negotiating positions
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran unilaterally announces stockpile surrender5%
US-Iran bilateral deal including uranium handover12%
Broader peace agreement with stockpile surrender component8%
Agreement to surrender portion of enriched uranium3%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.098
MARKET ACCURACY
0.171
EDGE
+72.6
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 41.3%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 31.3% vs market 41.3%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 4.5% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 16, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.