🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 16, 2026
polymarket market
Geopolitical event

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

PRISM
31.3%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
41.3%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-41pp

PRISM detected 7.8pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 41%. Model estimate: 31%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+70% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 16, 2026 at 10:04 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.8ppPRISM 31% · Market 41%
PRISM
31.3%
VS
MARKET
41.3%
EDGE DETECTED7.8pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+73
PUBLISHED
Apr 16, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 16, 10:04 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 31% vs market 41% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 1, 6:43 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +70% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
41.3%

The market was pricing this event at 41.3% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
31.3%
EDGE DETECTED
7.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
24.2%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
4.5%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Iran explicitly refused stockpile surrender in collapsed Islamabad negotiations despite US pressure
  • ▸Market overprices likelihood given Iran's consistent rejection of uranium handover demands
FACTORS FOR
  • +US blockade increasing economic pressure
  • +Ceasefire deadline April 21 creating urgency
  • +Turkish mediators expressing optimism
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Iran explicitly refused stockpile surrender in talks
  • −Pezeshkian vowed no surrender publicly
  • −15-20 year gap in negotiating positions
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran unilaterally announces stockpile surrender5%
US-Iran bilateral deal including uranium handover12%
Broader peace agreement with stockpile surrender component8%
Agreement to surrender portion of enriched uranium3%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.098
MARKET ACCURACY
0.171
EDGE
+72.6
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 41.3%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 31.3% vs market 41.3%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 4.5% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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LOSS
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LOSS
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 16, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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