Will Canada Ivey PMI s.a. for May 2026 be above 53.0? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 5, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events

May 26, 6:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 38% vs market 32% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Jun 5, 3:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +213% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

32.0%

The market was pricing this event at 32.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

37.9%

EDGE DETECTED

5.9pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates slightly better than one‑third odds that May’s Ivey PMI s.a
▸exceeds 53.0, given April’s strong 57.7 rebound
▸This suggests a modest long‑YES risk‑reward edge versus current pricing

FACTORS FOR

+April s.a. reading 57.7 already comfortably above 53.0
+Move from 49.7 to 57.7 signals firming Canadian activity

FACTORS AGAINST

−Ivey PMI historically exhibits notable month‑to‑month volatility
−Only one month of strength after a sub‑50 reading

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Canadian demand remains robust and PMI stays in high‑50s22%

April’s spike mean‑reverts partially but holds above 53.011%

Evidence 50%

SOURCES (3)

last week

Week Ahead - May 25th - Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com
Forecast. Tuesday May 26 2026, Actual, Previous, Consensus, Forecast. 10:00 AM. GB ... Ivey PMI s.a MAY, 57.7, 51. Sunday June 07 2026, Actual, Previous ...
May 22Open →
XAUUSD UM Futures Contract (May 2026) Trade Ideas - TradingViewtradingview.com
... Canadian Ivey PMI (Prior 56.6) • 11:00 ET: NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Prior 3.5%) - watch for oil shock impact on expectations • 12:35 ET: Fed's ...
May 21Open →
S&P Global / ISM / national statistics office resolution contextspglobal.com
Source: S&P Global / ISM / national statistics office Resolution field: Purchasing Managers Index value for the specified survey, country, sector, and month Frequency: monthly Known rule risks: Manufacturing, services, composite, NBS, ISM, and S&P Global PMI are different series; 50.0 is the expansion/contraction boundary but contract strikes may be far from 50; Flash and final PMI releases can differ; settlement depends on the contract source and release version
May 26Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.9% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.385

MARKET ACCURACY

0.462

EDGE

+77.1

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Canada Ivey PMI s.a. for May 2026 be above 53.0?, classifying it as underpriced at 32.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 37.9% vs market 32.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

RELATED INTEL

📈Finance

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 1, 2026?

WIN

📈Finance

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

LOSS

📈Finance

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.20ㅤ?

LOSS

PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 5, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.