What happened
This market resolved YES on May 17, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 12, 8:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 86% vs market 83% — NONE FAIR
- May 16, 12:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 63%
- May 16, 12:07 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 83% → 55% (-27pp)
- May 17, 8:05 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +81% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 55.1% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Bitcoin is currently slightly above the $78,000 threshold with modest recent volatility
- ▸The small 0.1% buffer and lack of strong catalysts keep odds only moderately above even
- +Current price is 0.1% above the $78,000 threshold.
- +Historical daily volatility and ATR are large relative to $40 gap.
- −24h and 7d performance are mildly negative, suggesting downside drift risk.
- −No major near-term catalysts to drive strong upside into the fix.
- Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) - Historical data, historical pricestwelvedata.com
Prices ; May 15, 2026, 81.08K · 81.65K ; May 14, 2026, 79.29K · 82.07K ; May 13, 2026, 80.48K · 81.29K ; May 12, 2026, 81.73K · 81.78K ...
May 15Open → - Current price of Bitcoin for May 13, 2026 | Fortunefortune.com
At 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13, 2026, one Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $80,304.05. That's down $556.92 from where it stood yesterday morning and roughly ...
May 13Open → - Current price of Bitcoin for May 15, 2026 | Fortunefortune.com
At 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time today, the market price for a single Bitcoin (BTC) is $80,120.03. That's a $546.24 jump from where it was trading yesterday ...
May 16Open → - Bitcoin May 16 Close: Live $103K, Above $70K Odds | Lines.comlines.com
Bitcoin sits at $103K on May 10, 2026. Polymarket implies a 99% chance Bitcoin closes above $70000 by May 16. Live odds, price, news.
May 10Open → - BTC Price Estimated to Reach $ 85127 By May 21, 2026 - CoinCodexcoincodex.com
Bitcoin is predicted to increase 8.87% in the next 5 days and hit a price target of $85127 per BTC. Check out today's Bitcoin price prediction to learn why.
May 16Open → - Closing Prices and SQ | Bitcoin Marketplace - bitFlyerbitflyer.com
This is the “Closing Prices and SQ” page for bitFlyer. Each virtual currency's closing price can be referenced on Buy/Sell and the exchange.
May 10Open → - Verified crypto market datacoingecko.com
## VERIFIED CRYPTO DATA (USE THESE NUMBERS — DO NOT HALLUCINATE PRICES) CRITICAL: The following price data is verified and current as of this moment. Use ONLY these numbers in your analysis. DO NOT substitute with any other price data. Asset: Bitcoin (BTC) Current Price: $78,040 (VERIFIED — use this exact number) 24h Change: -3.08% 7d Change: -2.88% All-Time High: $126,080 (-38.1% from ATH) Market Cap: $1563.2B 24h Volume: $36.8B ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target price: $78,000 Current price: $78,040 Distance to target: 0.1% ABOVE target ($40.00 above) Direction required: Price must stay above or rise to $78,000 IMPORTANT: These are PRICE MOVES (how
May 16Open → - Bitcoin May 17: Live Price, $72K Odds & News | Lines.comlines.com
It means Polymarket participants collectively price a 98.5% chance that Bitcoin's spot price exceeds $72,000 at 4:00 PM UTC on May 17, 2026. That reflects ...
May 11Open → - Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Can Bitcoin Hit $85K in May?247wallst.com
Bitcoin is 5% from $85K, but the rally just hit a wall. Here's what has to go right in the next 19 days for the BTC to hit $85K this month.
May 12Open → - Crypto News Today: Bitcoin Price Prediction Points toglobenewswire.com
Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could trade around $200,000 to $250,000 in 2026, but that outlook depends on factors like institutional adoption, ETF demand, ...
May 14Open → - Bitcoin Price Faces a Crucial $82,000 Test as ETF Outflows Returninvesting.com
Tiger Research published a Q2 2026 valuation report targeting $143,000 per coin, which sits comfortably inside the $97,000-to-$108,000 resistance band that ...
May 13Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 7.9% mispricing
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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