📈Finance/KALSHI/May 5, 2026
kalshi market

Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?

PRISM
34.2%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
21.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-21pp

PRISM detected 6.7pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 34% against the market's 21%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 5, 2026 at 6:11 AM
STRONG · UNDERPRICED+6.7ppPRISM 34% · Market 21%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to STRONG with edge now +6.7pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
34.2%
VS
MARKET
21.0%
EDGE DETECTED6.7pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
STRONG
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
HIGH
ACCURACY EDGE
-73
PUBLISHED
May 5, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 6, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events
  1. Apr 30, 10:11 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 35% vs market 34% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 5, 6:11 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → STRONG at Prism 34%

  3. May 5, 6:11 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 34% → 21% (-13pp)

  4. May 6, 5:30 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
21.0%

The market was pricing this event at 21.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
34.2%
EDGE DETECTED
6.7pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
HIGH
Kelly Reference
16.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
4.2%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Ferrari's guidance and analyst consensus indicate Q1 2026 shipments near 3,950 units, far above the 3,500 threshold
  • ▸The market at 21% significantly undervalues the high probability of exceeding that threshold
FACTORS FOR
  • +Guidance expects near 3,950 shipments
  • +Analyst consensus 3,900-4,050
  • +Q4 2025 shipments 3,950
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −None identified; strong fundamental support
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Ferrari reports Q1 2026 shipments above 3,50036%
SOURCES (4)
last week
  • Ferrari total shipments in Q1 2026 Odds and Forecast | Octagon AIoctagonai.co

    Following the company's robust 2025 performance and positive 2026 outlook, updated consensus estimates for Q1 2026 shipments increased to 3,900-4,050 units, indicating a positive alignment between company projections and analyst sentiment [^].

    Apr 29Open →
  • What will Ferrari say during their next earnings call | Octagon AIoctagonai.co

    Ferrari will not release or detail Q1 2026 financial results during the call. Ferrari may not address specific sell-side analyst concerns about recent price ...

    Apr 29Open →
  • Ferrari's Electric Debut Lands the Same Week Investors Discover ...barchart.com

    Ferrari is scheduled to report Q1 2026 results before market open on May 5, 2026. The consensus estimate stands at $2.70 per share, though only one analyst has ...

    May 4Open →
  • Company Prediction Markets & Corporate Odds - Kalshikalshi.com

    1.28x 77%. $95,532 vol7 markets · Ferrari N.V. · Ferrari total shipments in Q1 2026. May 5 @ 3:00AM. above 3500. 3.66x 26%. Above 3400. 1.20x 82%. $165,912 vol7 ...

    May 3Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 13.2% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.117
MARKET ACCURACY
0.044
EDGE
-72.7
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 21.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 34.2% vs market 21.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 4.2% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.99-emergency-slot-rebalance·Forecasted: May 5, 2026·Resolved: May 6, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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