What happened
This market resolved NO on May 23, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 15, 10:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 82% vs market 77% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 23, 12:43 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 77.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a high chance Trump utters ‘Strait’ or ‘Hormuz’ in at least one jointly aired event with Xi
- ▸The Iran–Hormuz focus and Trump’s speaking style materially raise mention likelihood above generic word-base rates
- +Iran and Strait of Hormuz are central agenda topics.
- +Trump often repeats key phrases and geographic terms in remarks.
- +Multiple joint events over two days increase mention opportunities.
- +Either of two related words triggers a YES outcome.
- −Only jointly broadcast live events with Xi qualify.
- −Diplomatic scripting may constrain off-the-cuff geographic references.
- −Some discussion may occur in private or not be aired.
- −Ambiguity whether side interviews in Beijing feature Xi on screen.
- Seized ship taken toward Iran as Trump and China's Xi agree Strait ...cbsnews.com
Trump says Xi told him China would not give Iran military equipment: "That's a big statement". In an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity Thursday from Beijing ...
May 15Open → - Trump meets with China's Xi to end Strait of Hormuz ... - YouTubeyoutube.com
The leaders of the world's two largest economies have no shortage of disagreements, but when it comes to the ability for vessels to pass through an ...
May 14Open → - IMF PortWatch resolution contextportwatch.imf.org
Source: IMF PortWatch Resolution field: 7-day moving average of transit calls through Strait of Hormuz above 60, per IMF PortWatch Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/POLITICALSTATTEMPORAL.pdf Known rule risks: Traders price this as geopolitical sentiment ("will Iran tensions ease?") but it's a DATA market with quantitative threshold; IMF PortWatch is publicly accessible — you can track the 7-day MA in real-time; "Transit calls" = ship passages, tracked by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data
May 15Open → - Xi welcomes Trump to Zhongnanhai for summit closing remarksyoutube.com
## NBC News ##### May 15, 2026 (0:02:32) Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with President Trump on day two of the U.S.-China summit at Zhongnanhai, saying that he chose the venue to reciprocate the hospitality shown to him at Mar-a-Lago in 2017. The two leaders continue their high-level discussions...
May 15Open → - Trump says Xi wants Strait of Hormuz kept open, opposes ...foxnews.com
Trump says Xi wants Strait of Hormuz kept open, opposes tolls. President Donald Trump explains what he and Chinese President Xi Jinping requested from each ...
May 15Open → - Xi Warns Trump of Potential “Conflict” over Taiwan in ...democracynow.org
China has repeatedly called for the war on Iran to end and for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. AMY GOODMAN: During their meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping ...
May 14Open → - Xi to Trump: US relationship with China could enter ' ...san.com
Transcripts show that while discussions focused primarily on trade, they also touching on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the meeting, Secretary of ...
May 14Open → - Trump: Xi says China won't give Iran military equipmentfoxnews.com
Trump: Xi says China won't give Iran military equipment. President Donald Trump shares key takeaways from his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 5.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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