🤖Tech/KALSHI/May 22, 2026
kalshi market

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 23, 2026?

PRISM
87.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
59.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+41pp

PRISM detected 10.0pp mispricing — and was right

Market priced this at 59%. PRISM saw 87% — a 10.0pp gap. The outcome confirmed the underpricing.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+33% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 22, 2026 at 2:07 AM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+10.0ppPRISM 87% · Market 59%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +10.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
87.0%
VS
MARKET
59.0%
EDGE DETECTED10.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+58
PUBLISHED
May 22, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 23, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

6 events
  1. May 22, 2:07 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 87% vs market 59% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 22, 8:07 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 59% → 84% (+25pp)

  3. May 22, 2:06 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 86% — edge +7.0pp

  4. May 22, 8:09 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 93% — edge +10.0pp

  5. May 22, 8:09 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 84% → 75% (-9pp)

  6. May 23, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Prism was right. +33% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
59.0%

The market was pricing this event at 59.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
87.0%
EDGE DETECTED
10.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 93%
  • ▸A scrubbed attempt with a next‑day window and no regulatory blockage implies a very high near‑term launch likelihood before the deadline
FACTORS FOR
  • +Launch attempt already reached final countdown before scrub
  • +Next‑day retry window publicly indicated by SpaceX and media
  • +No cited regulatory issues blocking further attempts
  • +Short remaining window favors aggressive SpaceX cadence
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Technical issue causing scrub could require more than one day
  • −Lack of direct FAA documentation in provided evidence
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Technical issue quickly resolved and Starship 12 launches on May 2278%
Further scrub(s) but at least one successful liftoff before May 2415%
Evidence 41%
SOURCES (4)
last day
  • Starship Test Flight 12 - Pad 2 - Starbase, Texas - May 21, 2026youtube.com

    ... launch window starts on May 22, 5:30 p.m. CDT, 6:30 p.m. EDT, 2230 UTC (May 23, 00:30 CEST). Launch Provider: SpaceX Launcher System: Starship-Super Heavy ...

    May 22Open →
  • SpaceX's 1st Starship V3 megarocket launch scrubbed at last minute ...space.com

    As that comment indicates, the next opportunity for a liftoff is Friday evening (May 22), likely in the same window as today's try — 6:30 p.m. EDT to 8 p.m. EDT ...

    May 22Open →
  • Starship aborted launch, 21 May 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com

    The launch of SpaceX's twelfth flight test of a fully integrated Starship was aborted at Starbase, Texas, on 21 May 2026, at 23:30 UTC (18:30 CDT).

    May 22Open →
  • FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) resolution contextkalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com

    Source: FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Resolution field: SpaceX launches Starship flight test number N before deadline. Outcome verified from FAA. Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/SPACEX.pdf Known rule risks: $1.27M+ volume — massive tech/space speculation market; FAA is the SOLE resolution source — NOT SpaceX announcements, NOT live streams; FAA data delay clause: if FAA data is delayed, market expiry shifts per Kalshi Rule 6.3b

    May 22Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 28.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.005
MARKET ACCURACY
0.063
EDGE
+57.6
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 23, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 59.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 87.0% vs market 59.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.152-kalshi-nearterm-recall·Forecasted: May 22, 2026·Resolved: May 23, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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